TBL @ UTA NHL prediction: AI analysis & picks
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TBLUTAOur picks for this match
Our Expert Analysis
PROView full analysis
CONFIRMED GOALIES
GAME CONTEXT
Utah Mammoth is 7-4 in 11 games, with 14 standings points. Its last game was on October 22, 2026, giving it 1 day of rest. Tampa Bay Lightning is 7-3 in 10 games, with 14 standings points, and is on the second night of a back-to-back after its game on October 23, 2026.
KEY ABSENCES
GAME SCRIPT
Both starting goalies are probable, and neither one shuts the door: Karel Vejmelka has a 0.875 save percentage and Dennis Hildeby a 0.896, with GSAx of -0.32 for the former and +0.18 for the latter. At 5-on-5, Utah Mammoth holds 56.5% of shot attempts over 10 games, compared with 55.2% for Tampa Bay Lightning: the gap is small. Expected goals are close as well, at 3.60 for Utah Mammoth and 3.64 for Tampa Bay Lightning. Tampa Bay Lightning is on the second night of a back-to-back, and Victor Hedman's availability remains uncertain.
OUR ANALYSIS
MONEYLINE: Our model gives Tampa Bay Lightning a 45.6% chance, while the 2.170 price implies 46.1%. The numbers barely separate the two teams, and back-to-back fatigue weighs on the visiting side. The price doesn't pay off this scenario: no moneyline pick.
TOTALS: Our model finds no lean on the total, as the line provided is 0.0. Both goalies below a 0.900 save percentage and expected goals of 3.60 and 3.64 point to an open game, but without a usable line, there is no total pick.
If Victor Hedman is in the lineup, Tampa Bay Lightning, which is averaging 3.20 goals scored per game over its last 10 games, can hold its own despite the fatigue. Conversely, Utah Mammoth could struggle if Karel Vejmelka, at a 0.875 save percentage, stays at that level.
We are passing on this game: no moneyline pick and no total pick.
Key Factors
| Team | xGF (10g) | xGA (10g) | Corsi% | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBLB2B |
3.64 | 2.61 | 55.2% | 19.2% | 77.3% |
| UTA |
3.60 | 2.56 | 56.5% | 48.2% | 57.1% |
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Head-to-Head
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
8 of 31 model features (last 5-10 games)
TBL
STAT
UTA
Frequently asked questions
When was TBL @ UTA played?
This NHL game was played on 2026-10-24.
Where can I find the prediction for TBL @ UTA?
This ProbWin page shows the predictions our model published before the game (moneyline and totals), the key stats for both sides, and the settled result — every prediction is kept, win or lose, in our public track record.
How are these predictions calculated?
Our NHL statistical models are trained on league history and recomputed daily from team and player stats plus market odds. Every prediction is published before the game and its result is settled publicly.
