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MIN @ SEA NHL prediction: AI analysis & picks

NHL · Climate Pledge Arena
MINMIN
Minnesota Wild
Away
★Follow
6W - 4L
VS
10/25/2026
Start 02:00
--d --h --m
SEASEA
Seattle Kraken
Home
★Follow
4W - 4L
Analysis published before puck drop Timestamped odds (CLV) Transparent methodology
GOALIES
Jesper Wallstedt
Confirmed
SV%0.915
GSAx/G+0.69
Joey Daccord
Probable
SV%0.882
GSAx/G-0.48
Moneyline
MINMIN
1.58 63% impl.
Moneyline
SEASEA
2.54 39% impl.
Total 6.0 O 1.88 / U 2.01
Pinnacle Odds - Updated in real time

Our picks for this match

AI Trend Minnesota Wild
Model confidence74 %
Odds
1.58
Market
Winner (Moneyline)
Taken on 24/10 · 23:16 at odds of 1.58
AI Trend UNDER 6
Model confidence55 %
Odds
2.01
Market
Total Goals (O/U)
Taken on 24/10 · 23:16 at odds of 2.01

Our Expert Analysis

PRO
Confidence
74%
xGF (10g)3.80 vs 2.98away vs home
Corsi%52.0 vs 42.8possession (%)
Projected total5.9goals (line 6.0)
Model probability78%vs 63% implied
View full analysis
No official pick selected on this game. The analysis below reflects our model's read (trend), but no market cleared our validation thresholds to become an official ProbWin pick.
Our picks
Moneyline: Minnesota Wild @ 1.580 — AI TREND

CONFIRMED GOALIES

● Seattle Kraken: Joey Daccord (probable starter) — 0.885 save percentage, 3.39 goals-against average (GAA), GSAx (goals saved above expected) -0.33 over his last 10 starts
● Minnesota Wild: Jesper Wallstedt (confirmed starter) — 0.919 save percentage, 2.18 GAA, GSAx +0.97 over his last 10 starts

GAME CONTEXT

Seattle is 7-3-1 in 11 games (7 wins, 3 regulation losses and 1 overtime or shootout loss) for 15 standings points. Its last game was on October 22, 2026, which gives it 1 day of rest. Minnesota is 6-3-2 in 11 games (6 wins, 3 regulation losses and 2 overtime or shootout losses) for 14 standings points. Its last game was also on October 22, 2026, with 1 day of rest.

KEY ABSENCES

● Seattle Kraken: Jacob Melanson (right wing), long-term injured reserve (LTIR); Jake O'Brien (center), LTIR; Ryan Lindgren (defenseman), LTIR.
● Minnesota Wild: Maxim Shabanov (right wing), questionable; Brock Faber (defenseman), LTIR; Filip Gustavsson (goalie), LTIR; Marcus Foligno (left wing), LTIR; Nick Foligno (left wing), LTIR.

GAME SCRIPT

The goaltending matchup tilts toward Wallstedt, a confirmed starter, over Daccord, who is only a probable starter. At five-on-five, Minnesota dominates with 52.0% of shot attempts against 42.8% for Seattle over 10 games. Expected goals point the same way: 3.80 for and 2.98 against for Minnesota, 2.98 for and 3.48 against for Seattle. With rest equal, the game could swing on a goalie shutting the door or on a wide-open third period.

OUR ANALYSIS

MONEYLINE: Our lean is toward the Minnesota Wild at 1.580. Our model gives the Minnesota Wild a 77.9% chance, while the odds imply 63.3%. The numbers point the same way: Wallstedt has a 0.919 save percentage against 0.885 for Daccord, and Minnesota holds the higher shot share. Minnesota has also won the last five head-to-head meetings, three of them in Seattle.

TOTALS: No pick on the total. Our model's projection is 5.89 goals, which is 0.11 goals under the line of 6.0. The gap is too thin, and the signals are split between Wallstedt, who allows 2.18 goals per game, and Daccord, who allows 3.39.

Devil's advocate

Seattle scores 3.70 goals per game over its last 10 games, enough to rattle Wallstedt despite his 0.919 save percentage. We accept that risk, since its expected goals are only 2.98 per game, below its actual goals.

ProbWin verdict

AI trend on the Minnesota Wild at 1.580, with no staking advice. We are not playing the total.

Key Factors

xGF (10g)
3.80vs2.98
xGA (10g)
2.98vs3.48
Corsi%
52.0%vs42.8%
PP% / PK%
36/86vs27/63
Rest
1dvs1d
TeamxGF (10g)xGA (10g)Corsi%PP%PK%
MIN 3.80 2.98 52.0% 36.4% 85.7%
SEA 2.98 3.48 42.8% 27.3% 63.2%
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Head-to-Head

5MIN
SEA0
04/07/26SEA — MIN2 – 5
01/08/26MIN — SEA3 – 2
12/09/25MIN — SEA4 – 1
03/19/25SEA — MIN0 – 4
03/19/25SEA — MIN0 – 4

Form & Stats

Team Comparison

8 of 31 model features (last 5-10 games)

MIN STAT SEA
3.10
Buts/Match ? Buts marqués par match en moyenne
3.70
2.50
Buts encaissés ? Buts concédés par match (défense)
3.40
3.80
xG For ? Expected Goals - Buts attendus selon la qualité des tirs
2.98
36.4%
PP% ? Power Play % - Efficacité en supériorité numérique (buts/opportunités)
27.3%
85.7%
PK% ? Penalty Kill % - Efficacité en infériorité numérique (1 - buts encaissés/opportunités)
63.2%
90.4%
Save% ? Pourcentage d'arrêts du gardien
89.1%
52.0%
CF% ? Corsi For % - Domination des tirs (tentatives pour vs contre)
42.8%
10.4%
Sh% ? Shooting % - Pourcentage de conversion des tirs en buts
14.0%

Frequently asked questions

When was MIN @ SEA played?

This NHL game was played on 2026-10-24.

Where can I find the prediction for MIN @ SEA?

This ProbWin page shows the predictions our model published before the game (moneyline and totals), the key stats for both sides, and the settled result — every prediction is kept, win or lose, in our public track record.

How are these predictions calculated?

Our NHL statistical models are trained on league history and recomputed daily from team and player stats plus market odds. Every prediction is published before the game and its result is settled publicly.

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