MIN @ CGY NHL prediction: AI analysis & picks
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MINCGYOur picks for this match
Our Expert Analysis
PROView full analysis
CONFIRMED GOALIES
GAME CONTEXT
Calgary is 2-6 in 8 games, with 4 standings points. The Flames' last game was on October 18, 2026, so they have 3 days of rest.
Minnesota is 6-2-2 in 10 games (6 wins, 2 regulation losses and 2 overtime or shootout losses), with 14 standings points. Its last game was on October 20, 2026, with 1 day of rest.
KEY ABSENCES
GAME SCRIPT
The 10-game numbers include the end of last season. The goalie matchup is clear: Jesper Wallstedt, the probable starter, has a .924 save percentage against .871 for Devin Cooley. At 5-on-5, shot attempt share is close (50.2 for Calgary, 50.0 for Minnesota), but Minnesota has higher expected goals (3.52 vs. 2.84) and Calgary allows 3.35 per game. Minnesota is playing on just 1 day of rest, and Wallstedt's last game went to overtime: fatigue is the factor to watch.
OUR ANALYSIS
MONEYLINE: Our lean is Minnesota Wild at 1.510. Our model gives Minnesota a 74.6% chance, while the odds imply 66.2%. The numbers point the same way: Calgary allows 4.00 actual goals per game over 10 games, Minnesota 2.50, and the gap between the goalies is wide.
TOTALS: No pick on the total. Our model projects 5.73 goals against a line of 6.0, leaning Under, but the 0.27-goal gap is too thin to play. A very solid goalie and a struggling goalie pull the total in opposite directions.
Wallstedt is coming off a game of more than 65 minutes played two days ago, with just one day of rest: fatigue could make him less airtight and make the game closer. We accept that risk, because Calgary scores only 2.20 goals per game over 10 games, with 2.84 expected goals.
AI trend: Minnesota Wild at 1.510 on the moneyline. We are not playing the total.
Key Factors
| Team | xGF (10g) | xGA (10g) | Corsi% | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN |
3.52 | 2.88 | 50.0% | 38.1% | 88.0% |
| CGY |
2.84 | 3.35 | 50.2% | 22.2% | 80.8% |
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Head-to-Head
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
8 of 31 model features (last 5-10 games)
MIN
STAT
CGY
Frequently asked questions
When was MIN @ CGY played?
This NHL game was played on 2026-10-22.
Where can I find the prediction for MIN @ CGY?
This ProbWin page shows the predictions our model published before the game (moneyline and totals), the key stats for both sides, and the settled result — every prediction is kept, win or lose, in our public track record.
How are these predictions calculated?
Our NHL statistical models are trained on league history and recomputed daily from team and player stats plus market odds. Every prediction is published before the game and its result is settled publicly.
