PIT @ VGK NHL prediction: AI analysis & picks

NHL · T-Mobile Arena

PIT

Pittsburgh Penguins

Away

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4W - 4L · B2B

10/18/2026
Start 02:00

--d --h --m

VGK

Vegas Golden Knights

Home

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5W - 4L

Analysis published before puck drop Timestamped odds (CLV) Transparent methodology

GOALIES

Sergei Murashov

Probable

SV%0.911

GSAx/G+0.38

Adin Hill

Confirmed

SV%0.901

GSAx/G-0.08

Moneyline

PIT

3.55 28% impl.

Moneyline

VGK

1.77 57% impl.

Total 6.5 O 2.05 / U 1.84

Pinnacle Odds - Updated in real time

Our picks for this match

2 AI picks on this match Model confidence, edge vs market and odds — members only.

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Our Expert Analysis

AI Analysis

CONFIRMED GOALIES

● Vegas Golden Knights: Adin Hill (confirmed) — 0.897 save percentage, 2.35 goals-against average (GAA), GSAx (goals saved above expected) +0.02 over his last 10 starts

● Pittsburgh Penguins: Sergei Murashov (probable) — 0.914 save percentage, 2.53 GAA, GSAx -0.05 over his last 10 starts

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GAME CONTEXT

Vegas is 7-2-0 in 9 games (7 wins, 2 losses, 0 overtime or shootout losses) for 14 standings points. Vegas last played on October 15, 2026 and has one day of rest. Pittsburgh is 3-4-1 in 8 games (3 wins, 4 losses, 1 overtime or shootout loss) for 7 standings points, and is playing the second night of a back-to-back after a game on October 16, 2026.

KEY ABSENCES

● Vegas Golden Knights: Parker Wotherspoon (D) — out (upper body); Lukas Cormier (D) — long-term injured reserve (LTIR)

● Pittsburgh Penguins: Egor Chinakhov (RW) — out (lower body); Justin Brazeau (RW) — LTIR; Ryan Graves (D) — LTIR; Trevor van Riemsdyk (D) — LTIR

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Odds Comparison

Comparer les cotes

Bookmaker	Totals OVER	Totals UNDER	ML HOME	ML AWAY
Pinnacle (réf.)	1.81@6.5	2.10@6.5	1.51	2.76
1xBet	2.05@6.5	1.84@6.5	1.84	3.67
Betclic	—	—	1.77	3.55
Winamax	—	—	1.72	3.35
Unibet	—	—	1.69	3.30
888sport	1.80@6.5	2.00@6.5	1.50	2.60

Cotes pré-match indicatives — la meilleure cote est en vert.

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Head-to-Head

3PIT

VGK2

03/12/26PIT — VGK2 – 6

03/01/26VGK — PIT0 – 5

03/11/25VGK — PIT2 – 3

03/07/25PIT — VGK0 – 4

Form & Stats

Team Comparison

8 of 31 model features (last 5-10 games)

PIT STAT

VGK

3.10

Buts/Match ?

3.10

2.60

Buts encaissés ?

2.70

3.49

xG For ?

3.54

18.5%

PP% ?

25.9%

90.9%

PK% ?

71.4%

90.7%

Save% ?

89.0%

51.8%

CF% ?

54.1%

10.9%

Sh% ?

10.6%

Frequently asked questions

When is PIT @ VGK played?

This NHL game is scheduled for 2026-10-17.

Where can I find a prediction for PIT @ VGK?

This ProbWin page shows our model's probabilities for moneyline and totals, the key stats for both sides and, on game day, a full written analysis. Every prediction is then settled in our public track record.

How are these predictions calculated?

Our NHL statistical models are trained on league history and recomputed daily from team and player stats plus market odds. Every prediction is published before the game and its result is settled publicly.