VGK @ NSH NHL prediction: AI analysis & picks
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VGKNSHOur picks for this match
Our Expert Analysis
PROView full analysis
CONFIRMED GOALIES
GAME CONTEXT
Nashville has 2 wins, 1 loss and 2 overtime or shootout losses in 5 games, for 6 standings points. Its last game was on October 10, 2026, and the team has 2 days of rest. Vegas has 5 wins and 2 losses in 7 games, for 10 standings points, and is on the second night of a back-to-back after its October 12, 2026 game.
KEY ABSENCES
GAME SCRIPT
The 10-game numbers include the end of last season. Both goalies are probable starters, not confirmed. Adin Hill has a .902 save percentage and a 2.27 GAA, compared with .892 and 3.34 for Juuse Saros. At 5-on-5, Vegas leads with 52.5% of shot attempts, compared with 44.3% for Nashville, and its expected goals for (3.67) are close to Nashville's expected goals against (3.52). Vegas' back-to-back remains the counterweight.
OUR ANALYSIS
MONEYLINE: No moneyline pick. Our model gives the Vegas Golden Knights a 73.2% chance, while the 1.760 odds imply 56.8%. The numbers point toward Vegas: shot attempt share, expected goals for, and a goalie with a lower GAA. Nashville's rest tempers that read.
TOTALS: Our model leans toward the under 6.0, with a projection of 5.74 goals, 0.26 goals below the line, but the odds don't pay off that scenario. The line has not moved since opening at 6.0. Nashville's expected goals against (3.52) and Vegas' expected goals for (3.67) lean more toward the over.
Mavrik Bourque (C) is questionable for Nashville, and his presence could change the offensive read of this game. Vegas' back-to-back could also change the pace of the game.
We are not playing this game, on either the moneyline or the total.
Key Factors
| Team | xGF (10g) | xGA (10g) | Corsi% | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGKB2B |
3.69 | 2.52 | 54.0% | 32.0% | 71.4% |
| NSH |
2.80 | 3.52 | 44.3% | 40.9% | 77.3% |
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Head-to-Head
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
8 of 31 model features (last 5-10 games)
VGK
STAT
NSH
Frequently asked questions
When was VGK @ NSH played?
This NHL game was played on 2026-10-13.
Where can I find the prediction for VGK @ NSH?
This ProbWin page shows the predictions our model published before the game (moneyline and totals), the key stats for both sides, and the settled result — every prediction is kept, win or lose, in our public track record.
How are these predictions calculated?
Our NHL statistical models are trained on league history and recomputed daily from team and player stats plus market odds. Every prediction is published before the game and its result is settled publicly.
