TOR @ UTA NHL prediction: AI analysis & picks
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TORUTAOur picks for this match
Our Expert Analysis
PROView full analysis
CONFIRMED GOALIES
GAME CONTEXT
Utah is 4-2-0 in 6 games, with 8 standings points (that's 4 wins, 2 losses and 0 overtime or shootout losses). Its last game was October 10, 2026, after 2 days of rest.
Toronto is 3-2-1 in 6 games, with 7 standings points (that's 3 wins, 2 losses and 1 overtime or shootout loss). Its last game was October 10, 2026, after 2 days of rest.
KEY ABSENCES
GAME SCRIPT
The 10-game figures include the end of last season. In goal, Anthony Stolarz (0.915 save percentage, GSAx +0.71) has the edge over Karel Vejmelka (0.879, GSAx -0.32), and both goalies are probable starters. At 5-on-5, Utah has the edge with 53.0% of shot attempts versus 47.2% for Toronto, and its expected goals against are 3.03 per game, versus 4.28 for Toronto. The swing scenario: Stolarz keeps Toronto in the game despite the chances it gives up.
OUR ANALYSIS
MONEYLINE: No moneyline pick. Our model gives the Toronto Maple Leafs a 47.0% chance, while the 2.400 odds imply 41.7%. The goalie comparison supports that read. The team numbers point the other way: Utah shows 3.17 expected goals for versus 2.74, and 3.40 goals scored versus 2.50. In the last meeting, on January 13, 2026, Utah won 6-1 at home.
TOTALS: No total pick. Our model projects 4.94 goals against a line of 6.5, which is 1.56 goals below the line, on the Under side; the Under loses at 7 goals. The team numbers add nuance to that read: Toronto allows 4.28 expected goals per game, and Utah has scored 3.40 goals per game.
Both goalies are only probable starters, and Karel Vejmelka has a 0.879 save percentage. A change in goal, or a Toronto defense that still allows 4.28 expected goals per game, could shift this read.
We are not playing this game.
Key Factors
| Team | xGF (10g) | xGA (10g) | Corsi% | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR |
2.74 | 4.28 | 47.2% | 27.3% | 81.5% |
| UTA |
3.17 | 3.03 | 53.0% | 29.0% | 78.6% |
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Head-to-Head
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
8 of 31 model features (last 5-10 games)
TOR
STAT
UTA
Frequently asked questions
When was TOR @ UTA played?
This NHL game was played on 2026-10-13.
Where can I find the prediction for TOR @ UTA?
This ProbWin page shows the predictions our model published before the game (moneyline and totals), the key stats for both sides, and the settled result — every prediction is kept, win or lose, in our public track record.
How are these predictions calculated?
Our NHL statistical models are trained on league history and recomputed daily from team and player stats plus market odds. Every prediction is published before the game and its result is settled publicly.
