PIT @ CHI NHL prediction: AI analysis & picks
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Our Expert Analysis
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CONFIRMED GOALIES
GAME CONTEXT
The Chicago Blackhawks have 1 win, 5 losses and 0 overtime or shootout losses (6 games, 2 standings points). Their last game was on October 10, 2026, giving them 2 days of rest. The Pittsburgh Penguins have 3 wins, 2 losses and 1 overtime or shootout loss (6 games, 7 standings points). Their last game was on October 10, 2026, giving them 2 days of rest.
KEY ABSENCES
GAME SCRIPT
The 10-game numbers include the end of last season. Both goalies are probable starters, not confirmed: Murashov has a 0.901 save percentage and Knight a 0.870, with a negative GSAx on both sides. At 5-on-5, Pittsburgh leads with 52.1% of shot attempts against 46.7% for Chicago, and 3.41 expected goals per game against 2.58. Chicago allows 4.30 goals per game against 3.09 expected goals against.
OUR ANALYSIS
MONEYLINE: No moneyline pick. Our model gives the Chicago Blackhawks 49.4%, while the odds of 2.410 imply 41.5%. The numbers point the other way: Pittsburgh leads in shot share, has higher expected goals and won four of the last five meetings, including 7-3 in Chicago on December 28, 2025 and 6-2 in Pittsburgh on January 29, 2026.
TOTALS: No total pick. Our model's projection is 6.20 goals, 0.30 goals under the 6.5 line. The numbers do not clearly point in that direction. Chicago allows 4.30 goals per game and Knight allows 3.66 goals per game, while the last two meetings ended 7-3 and 2-6.
Connor Bedard's estimated return on October 13, 2026 and the probable status of both goalies could change how this game should be read.
We are not playing this game.
Key Factors
| Team | xGF (10g) | xGA (10g) | Corsi% | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT |
3.41 | 3.33 | 52.1% | 25.9% | 87.0% |
| CHI |
2.58 | 3.09 | 46.7% | 8.0% | 68.4% |
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Head-to-Head
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
8 of 31 model features (last 5-10 games)
PIT
STAT
CHI
Frequently asked questions
When was PIT @ CHI played?
This NHL game was played on 2026-10-13.
Where can I find the prediction for PIT @ CHI?
This ProbWin page shows the predictions our model published before the game (moneyline and totals), the key stats for both sides, and the settled result — every prediction is kept, win or lose, in our public track record.
How are these predictions calculated?
Our NHL statistical models are trained on league history and recomputed daily from team and player stats plus market odds. Every prediction is published before the game and its result is settled publicly.
