COL @ DAL NHL prediction: AI analysis & picks
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COLDALOur picks for this match
Our Expert Analysis
PROView full analysis
CONFIRMED GOALIES
GAME CONTEXT
Dallas Stars are 2-2-1 through 5 games, good for 5 standings points. Dallas Stars last played on October 10, 2026 and have 2 days of rest. Colorado Avalanche are 3-2 through 5 games, good for 6 standings points, with 2 days of rest after their game on October 10, 2026.
KEY ABSENCES
GAME SCRIPT
Early in the season, the 10-game numbers include the end of last season. The goaltending matchup tilts toward Jake Oettinger: 0.911 save percentage and a +0.82 GSAx, versus 0.895 and -0.14 for Mackenzie Blackwood. At 5-on-5, Colorado Avalanche take 55.8% of shot attempts against 52.7% for Dallas Stars, with 3.24 expected goals per game against 3.00. Colorado Avalanche have scored 3.90 goals per game over their last 10, Dallas Stars 2.50.
OUR ANALYSIS
MONEYLINE: Our model gives Dallas Stars a 52.0% chance, while the 2.030 odds imply 49.3%. Dallas Stars' goalie points in that direction, but Colorado Avalanche's offense and their 2-0 win in Dallas on April 4, 2026 pull the other way. No moneyline pick: the game does not meet our publishing criteria.
TOTALS: Our model projects 6.43 goals, 0.43 goal above the 6.0 line. Blackwood allows 2.83 goals per game and Colorado Avalanche score 3.90, which points toward the over. Oettinger and Dallas Stars' 2.50 goals per game point the other way. No total pick.
The return of Logan O'Connor, estimated for October 13, 2026, could change the read on Colorado Avalanche's side. His LTIR status leaves his availability uncertain.
We are passing on this game: neither the moneyline nor the total is selected.
Key Factors
| Team | xGF (10g) | xGA (10g) | Corsi% | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL |
3.24 | 2.97 | 55.8% | 20.0% | 85.0% |
| DAL |
3.00 | 2.86 | 52.7% | 40.0% | 82.9% |
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Head-to-Head
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
8 of 31 model features (last 5-10 games)
COL
STAT
DAL
Frequently asked questions
When was COL @ DAL played?
This NHL game was played on 2026-10-13.
Where can I find the prediction for COL @ DAL?
This ProbWin page shows the predictions our model published before the game (moneyline and totals), the key stats for both sides, and the settled result — every prediction is kept, win or lose, in our public track record.
How are these predictions calculated?
Our NHL statistical models are trained on league history and recomputed daily from team and player stats plus market odds. Every prediction is published before the game and its result is settled publicly.
