BOS @ SJS NHL prediction: AI analysis & picks
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BOSSJSOur picks for this match
Our Expert Analysis
PROView full analysis
CONFIRMED GOALIES
GAME CONTEXT
San Jose is 3 wins, 2 losses and 0 overtime or shootout losses through 5 games, good for 6 standings points. Its last game was on October 10, 2026, with 2 days of rest. Boston is 4 wins, 2 losses and 0 overtime or shootout losses through 6 games, good for 8 standings points. Its last game was also on October 10, 2026, with 2 days of rest.
KEY ABSENCES
GAME SCRIPT
The 10-game numbers include the end of last season. The goalie matchup is the focal point: Swayman has a 0.925 save percentage and a GSAx of +0.74, while Askarov is at 0.855 and -1.02. At 5-on-5, the shot attempt share is close: 46.1% for Boston and 44.9% for San Jose, so neither team dominates. Expected goals against per game are 3.43 for San Jose and 3.34 for Boston, which leaves the goalies to tip the game.
OUR ANALYSIS
MONEYLINE: Our model gives the Boston Bruins a 73.2% chance, while the 1.820 price implies 54.9%. The numbers point the same way. Swayman has a clear edge in goal, and Boston produces 2.82 expected goals per game compared with 2.60 for San Jose. Our lean is the Boston Bruins @ 1.820.
TOTALS: Our model projects 6.63 goals, 0.63 goals above the 6.0 line, but we are not making a pick on this market. Askarov allows 4.24 goals per game, which points toward the over. Swayman allows 1.99, which pulls the other way. An Over 6.0 cashes at 7 goals or more.
The scenario in which Boston loses: its offense stalls, with 2.40 goals scored per game and 46.1% of shot attempts, and San Jose, which has already won three of the last five meetings, takes advantage. We accept that risk, because Boston generates 2.82 expected goals per game, a level above its actual goals.
Our lean is the Boston Bruins @ 1.820 on the moneyline. We are not playing the total.
Key Factors
| Team | xGF (10g) | xGA (10g) | Corsi% | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS |
2.82 | 3.34 | 46.1% | 18.2% | 87.5% |
| SJS |
2.60 | 3.43 | 44.9% | 28.6% | 64.0% |
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Head-to-Head
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
8 of 31 model features (last 5-10 games)
BOS
STAT
SJS
Frequently asked questions
When was BOS @ SJS played?
This NHL game was played on 2026-10-13.
Where can I find the prediction for BOS @ SJS?
This ProbWin page shows the predictions our model published before the game (moneyline and totals), the key stats for both sides, and the settled result — every prediction is kept, win or lose, in our public track record.
How are these predictions calculated?
Our NHL statistical models are trained on league history and recomputed daily from team and player stats plus market odds. Every prediction is published before the game and its result is settled publicly.
