TBL @ NYI NHL prediction: AI analysis & picks
Start 23:30
TBLNYIOur picks for this match
Our Expert Analysis
PROView full analysis
CONFIRMED GOALIES
GAME CONTEXT
The New York Islanders are 2-2 through 4 games, with 4 standings points, and last played on October 8, 2026, with 1 day of rest. The Tampa Bay Lightning are 3-1 through 4 games, with 6 standings points, and last played on October 8, 2026, with 1 day of rest.
KEY ABSENCES
GAME SCRIPT
The 10-game numbers include the end of last season. In goal, Vasilevskiy posts a 0.909 save percentage and a +0.49 GSAx, compared with 0.880 and -0.12 for Sorokin. At 5-on-5, Tampa Bay controls 56.1% of shot attempts, compared with 50.5% for New York, and allows 2.70 expected goals per game, compared with 3.76. New York generates 3.44 expected goals per game, compared with 3.18 for Tampa Bay, but both teams have scored 2.30 actual goals per game.
OUR ANALYSIS
MONEYLINE: Our lean is Tampa Bay Lightning at 1.580. The numbers point that way: shot share, expected goals against, actual goals allowed (2.30 vs. 3.10) and the goalie matchup. Our model gives Tampa Bay 71.3%, while the odds imply 63.3%. New York won the last two meetings, on December 2 and 6, 2025.
TOTALS: No pick on the total. Our model projects 5.91 goals for a line of 5.5 (opener: 6.0), which is 0.41 goals above the line, on the Over side. Actual goals, 2.30 per game for each team, stay well below that level. The last two meetings finished 2-0 and 2-1, and Vasilevskiy is the safer goalie of the two.
The New York Islanders create more expected goals (3.44) than the Tampa Bay Lightning (3.18), and the head-to-head series went their way in December 2025. A Sorokin at his best would flip this game. We accept that risk, because New York has converted only 2.30 actual goals per game, well below its 3.44 expected goals.
AI trend: Tampa Bay Lightning at 1.580, with no staking advice. We are not making a pick on the total.
Key Factors
| Team | xGF (10g) | xGA (10g) | Corsi% | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL |
3.18 | 2.70 | 56.1% | 14.7% | 78.6% |
| NYI |
3.44 | 3.76 | 50.5% | 14.3% | 75.0% |
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Head-to-Head
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
8 of 31 model features (last 5-10 games)
TBL
STAT
NYI
Frequently asked questions
When was TBL @ NYI played?
This NHL game was played on 2026-10-10.
Where can I find the prediction for TBL @ NYI?
This ProbWin page shows the predictions our model published before the game (moneyline and totals), the key stats for both sides, and the settled result — every prediction is kept, win or lose, in our public track record.
How are these predictions calculated?
Our NHL statistical models are trained on league history and recomputed daily from team and player stats plus market odds. Every prediction is published before the game and its result is settled publicly.
