STL @ CHI NHL prediction: AI analysis & picks
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STLCHIOur picks for this match
Our Expert Analysis
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CONFIRMED GOALIES
GAME CONTEXT
Chicago is 0-3 through 3 games, with 0 standings points. Its last game was on October 3, 2026, which gives it 2 days of rest. St. Louis is 1-1 through 2 games, with 2 standings points, and its last game was also on October 3, 2026, with 2 days of rest.
KEY ABSENCES
GAME SCRIPT
Both goalies are probable starters, not confirmed. Over the last 10 starts, Hofer has a .920 save percentage and a GSAx of +0.44, versus .871 and -0.33 for Knight. At 5-on-5, the shot attempt share is identical at 47.2 over 10 games, but St. Louis posts 3.49 expected goals per game versus 2.57, and 4.00 actual goals versus 2.30 for Chicago; these figures include the end of last season. With 2 days of rest on both sides, the game will swing on goaltending: Knight has allowed 3.85 goals per game over his window.
OUR ANALYSIS
MONEYLINE: We are backing the St. Louis Blues at 1.710. Our model gives St. Louis a 63.1% chance, while the odds imply 58.5%, an edge of +4.6 points. The numbers point in that direction: the goalie gap, expected and actual goals, and the 3.25 expected goals against per game for Chicago.
TOTALS: Our model leans Under 6.0, with a projection of 5.94 goals, 0.06 goals under the line; the price does not pay for that scenario, hence no pick.
Chicago can flip the script: the team beat St. Louis 7-3 on January 7, 2026, and 8-3 on October 15, 2025. We accept that risk, because Chicago is scoring just 2.30 goals per game over its last 10 games.
Official pick: St. Louis Blues at 1.710, with no staking recommendation. We are taking no position on the total.
Key Factors
| Team | xGF (10g) | xGA (10g) | Corsi% | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL |
3.49 | 2.96 | 47.2% | 20.8% | 91.3% |
| CHI |
2.57 | 3.25 | 47.2% | 8.3% | 65.0% |
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Head-to-Head
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
8 of 31 model features (last 5-10 games)
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Frequently asked questions
When was STL @ CHI played?
This NHL game was played on 2026-10-06.
Where can I find the prediction for STL @ CHI?
This ProbWin page shows the predictions our model published before the game (moneyline and totals), the key stats for both sides, and the settled result — every prediction is kept, win or lose, in our public track record.
How are these predictions calculated?
Our NHL statistical models are trained on league history and recomputed daily from team and player stats plus market odds. Every prediction is published before the game and its result is settled publicly.
