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WPG @ PIT NHL prediction: AI analysis & picks

NHL · PPG Paints Arena
WPGWPG
Winnipeg Jets
Away
★Follow
4W - 6L · B2B
VS
10/05/2026
Start 23:30
--d --h --m
PITPIT
Pittsburgh Penguins
Home
★Follow
3W - 7L
Analysis published before puck drop Timestamped odds (CLV) Transparent methodology
CONFIRMED GOALIES
Clay Stevenson
Confirmed
SV%0.921
GSAx/G+0.79
Sergei Murashov
Confirmed
SV%0.897
GSAx/G-0.70
Moneyline
WPGWPG
2.57 39% impl.
Moneyline
PITPIT
1.57 64% impl.
Total 6.5 O 1.98 / U 1.91
Pinnacle Odds - Updated in real time

Our picks for this match

2 AI picks on this match Model confidence, edge vs market and odds — members only.
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Our Expert Analysis

AI Analysis

CONFIRMED GOALIES

● Pittsburgh Penguins: Sergei Murashov (confirmed) — .912 save percentage, 1.90 goals-against average (GAA), GSAx (goals saved above expected) of -0.19 over his last 10 starts
● Winnipeg Jets: Clay Stevenson (confirmed) — .892 save percentage, 3.00 GAA, GSAx of +0.36 over his last 10 starts

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GAME CONTEXT

Pittsburgh is 2-0-0 through 2 games, good for 4 standings points, and has 1 day of rest after its October 3, 2026 game. Winnipeg is 1-0-1 through 2 games (1 win, 0 regulation losses and 1 overtime or shootout loss), good for 3 standings points, and is on the second night of a back-to-back after its October 4, 2026 game.

KEY ABSENCES

● Pittsburgh Penguins: Bryan Rust (RW), long-term injured reserve (LTIR), estimated return October 5, 2026; Justin Brazeau (RW), LTIR; Ryan Graves (D), LTIR
● Winnipeg Jets: Connor Hellebuyck (G), suspended; Elias Salomonsson (D), LTIR; Garrett Brown (C), LTIR; Walker Duehr (RW), LTIR

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Odds Comparison

Comparer les cotes

Bookmaker Totals OVER Totals UNDER ML HOME ML AWAY
Pinnacle (réf.) 1.98@6.5 1.91@6.5 1.57 2.57
1xBet 2.21@6.5 1.73@6.5 1.97 3.35
Betclic — — 1.90 3.22
Winamax — — 1.88 3.15
Unibet — — 1.79 2.95

Cotes pré-match indicatives — la meilleure cote est en vert.

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Head-to-Head

4WPG
PIT1
03/21/26WPG — PIT4 – 5
11/01/25PIT — WPG2 – 5
11/22/24WPG — PIT4 – 1
11/22/24WPG — PIT4 – 1
10/20/24PIT — WPG3 – 6

Form & Stats

Team Comparison

8 of 31 model features (last 5-10 games)

WPG STAT PIT
2.50
Buts/Match ? Buts marqués par match en moyenne
2.60
3.90
Buts encaissés ? Buts concédés par match (défense)
3.20
3.13
xG For ? Expected Goals - Buts attendus selon la qualité des tirs
2.93
38.1%
PP% ? Power Play % - Efficacité en supériorité numérique (buts/opportunités)
21.7%
66.7%
PK% ? Penalty Kill % - Efficacité en infériorité numérique (1 - buts encaissés/opportunités)
80.0%
85.2%
Save% ? Pourcentage d'arrêts du gardien
87.9%
50.0%
CF% ? Corsi For % - Domination des tirs (tentatives pour vs contre)
53.5%
9.2%
Sh% ? Shooting % - Pourcentage de conversion des tirs en buts
10.2%

Frequently asked questions

When is WPG @ PIT played?

This NHL game is scheduled for 2026-10-05.

Where can I find a prediction for WPG @ PIT?

This ProbWin page shows our model's probabilities for moneyline and totals, the key stats for both sides and, on game day, a full written analysis. Every prediction is then settled in our public track record.

How are these predictions calculated?

Our NHL statistical models are trained on league history and recomputed daily from team and player stats plus market odds. Every prediction is published before the game and its result is settled publicly.

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