SJS @ DAL NHL prediction: AI analysis & picks
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SJSDALOur picks for this match
Our Expert Analysis
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CONFIRMED GOALIES
GAME CONTEXT
Dallas is 0-2-0 through 2 games, with 0 standings points. Its last game was on October 3, 2026, with 1 day of rest. San Jose is 2-0-0 through 2 games, with 4 standings points. Its last game was on October 3, 2026, with 1 day of rest.
KEY ABSENCES
GAME SCRIPT
The 10-game numbers include the end of last season. The goalie matchup favors Dallas: Oettinger has a .908 save percentage and a +0.90 GSAx, while Askarov has a .866 and -0.76. At 5-on-5, Dallas has 51.1% of shot attempts compared with 47.2% for San Jose, a slight edge. Dallas generates 3.14 expected goals per game against 2.60 actual goals, so its offense has scored less than its chances would suggest.
OUR ANALYSIS
MONEYLINE: Our lean is Dallas Stars at 1.500. Our model gives Dallas 82.8%, while the odds imply 66.7%. The numbers point the same way: the better goalie form, a higher share of shot attempts, and a 4.04 GAA for Askarov. Dallas has also won four of the last five meetings, including 4-1 on December 5, 2025.
TOTALS: No total pick: our model's projection is 5.87 goals, which is 0.63 goals under the 6.5 line. The numbers send mixed signals: Oettinger allows 2.16 goals per game, Askarov 4.04.
Dallas has scored only 2.60 goals per game over its last 10 games, while San Jose has scored 3.10. If that offensive weakness continues, a tight game can swing either way. We accept that risk, because Dallas's expected goals are 3.14 per game, a level that points to quality chances against a goalie with a .866 save percentage.
Our lean is Dallas Stars at 1.500 on the moneyline, overtime and shootout included. We are not playing the total, and we offer no staking advice.
Key Factors
| Team | xGF (10g) | xGA (10g) | Corsi% | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS |
2.74 | 3.30 | 47.2% | 26.3% | 54.2% |
| DAL |
3.14 | 2.98 | 51.1% | 41.4% | 85.7% |
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Head-to-Head
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
8 of 31 model features (last 5-10 games)
SJS
STAT
DAL
Frequently asked questions
When was SJS @ DAL played?
This NHL game was played on 2026-10-05.
Where can I find the prediction for SJS @ DAL?
This ProbWin page shows the predictions our model published before the game (moneyline and totals), the key stats for both sides, and the settled result — every prediction is kept, win or lose, in our public track record.
How are these predictions calculated?
Our NHL statistical models are trained on league history and recomputed daily from team and player stats plus market odds. Every prediction is published before the game and its result is settled publicly.
