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PHI @ TBL NHL prediction: AI analysis & picks

NHL · Amalie Arena
PHIPHI
Philadelphia Flyers
Away
★Follow
2W - 8L
VS
10/05/2026
Start 23:00
--d --h --m
TBLTBL
Tampa Bay Lightning
Home
★Follow
4W - 6L
Analysis published before puck drop Timestamped odds (CLV) Transparent methodology
CONFIRMED GOALIES
Dan Vladar
Confirmed
SV%0.816
GSAx/G-2.71
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Confirmed
SV%0.889
GSAx/G+0.04
Moneyline
PHIPHI
2.98 34% impl.
Moneyline
TBLTBL
1.45 69% impl.
Total 6.0 O 2.03 / U 1.87
Pinnacle Odds - Updated in real time

Our picks for this match

2 AI picks on this match Model confidence, edge vs market and odds — members only.
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Our Expert Analysis

AI Analysis

CONFIRMED GOALIES

● Tampa Bay Lightning: Andrei Vasilevskiy (probable starter) — 0.896 save percentage, 2.53 goals-against average (GAA), GSAx (goals saved above expected) +0.06 over his last 10 starts
● Philadelphia Flyers: Dan Vladar (confirmed) — 0.920 save percentage, 1.99 GAA, GSAx +0.55 over his last 10 starts

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GAME CONTEXT

The Tampa Bay Lightning are 1-1-0 in 2 games, with 2 standings points (1 win, 1 loss and 0 overtime/shootout losses). Their last game was on October 3, 2026, giving them 1 day of rest. The Philadelphia Flyers are 0-1-2 in 3 games, with 2 standings points (0 wins, 1 loss and 2 overtime/shootout losses). Their last game was also on October 3, 2026, giving them 1 day of rest.

KEY ABSENCES

● Tampa Bay Lightning: Emil Lilleberg (D), questionable; Dominic James (C), long-term injured reserve (LTIR); Yanni Gourde (C), LTIR
● Philadelphia Flyers: Nikita Grebenkin (RW), questionable; Rasmus Ristolainen (D), questionable; Denver Barkey (C), LTIR; Helge Grans (D), LTIR

Full analysis and verdict

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Odds Comparison

Comparer les cotes

Bookmaker Totals OVER Totals UNDER ML HOME ML AWAY
Pinnacle (réf.) 2.03@6.0 1.87@6.0 1.45 2.98
1xBet 1.83@5.5 2.06@5.5 1.77 4.11
Betclic — — 1.73 3.80
Winamax — — 1.72 3.75
Unibet — — 1.64 3.45

Cotes pré-match indicatives — la meilleure cote est en vert.

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Head-to-Head

0PHI
TBL5
01/12/26TBL — PHI5 – 1
01/10/26TBL — PHI7 – 2
11/24/25PHI — TBL0 – 3
03/17/25PHI — TBL0 – 2
03/17/25PHI — TBL0 – 2

Form & Stats

Team Comparison

8 of 31 model features (last 5-10 games)

PHI STAT TBL
1.70
Buts/Match ? Buts marqués par match en moyenne
2.20
3.20
Buts encaissés ? Buts concédés par match (défense)
2.80
2.45
xG For ? Expected Goals - Buts attendus selon la qualité des tirs
2.86
11.5%
PP% ? Power Play % - Efficacité en supériorité numérique (buts/opportunités)
16.1%
80.6%
PK% ? Penalty Kill % - Efficacité en infériorité numérique (1 - buts encaissés/opportunités)
75.0%
90.4%
Save% ? Pourcentage d'arrêts du gardien
87.9%
40.5%
CF% ? Corsi For % - Domination des tirs (tentatives pour vs contre)
54.8%
6.9%
Sh% ? Shooting % - Pourcentage de conversion des tirs en buts
8.1%

Frequently asked questions

When is PHI @ TBL played?

This NHL game is scheduled for 2026-10-05.

Where can I find a prediction for PHI @ TBL?

This ProbWin page shows our model's probabilities for moneyline and totals, the key stats for both sides and, on game day, a full written analysis. Every prediction is then settled in our public track record.

How are these predictions calculated?

Our NHL statistical models are trained on league history and recomputed daily from team and player stats plus market odds. Every prediction is published before the game and its result is settled publicly.

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