CGY @ SEA NHL prediction: AI analysis & picks
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CGYSEAOur picks for this match
Our Expert Analysis
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CONFIRMED GOALIES
GAME CONTEXT
Seattle has a 1-1-0 record in 2 games, with 2 standings points, and played the night before, on October 3, 2026, making this the second night of a back-to-back. Calgary has a 0-2-0 record in 2 games, with 0 standings points, and also played the night before, on October 3, 2026, making this the second night of a back-to-back.
KEY ABSENCES
GAME SCRIPT
Early season: the 10-game numbers include the end of last season. Dustin Wolf, Calgary's probable starter, has a .916 save percentage compared with .879 for Joey Daccord, Seattle's probable starter, whose GSAx is -0.74. At 5-on-5, Seattle takes 48.0% of shot attempts versus 43.0% for Calgary, but both defenses give up a lot: 3.37 expected goals against for Seattle, 4.00 for Calgary. Both teams are on the second night of a back-to-back, and a goalie who wears down late in the game opens the door to the third period.
OUR ANALYSIS
MONEYLINE: No moneyline pick. Our model gives Calgary Flames a 55.8% chance, while the 2.320 odds imply 43.1%. The goalie gap points that way, but the numbers run the other direction on shot attempt share and on Calgary's expected goals against. Seattle also won 6-1 at Calgary on October 1, 2026.
TOTALS: We are taking the Over 5.5 at 1.840. Our model projects 6.75 goals, 1.25 goals above the line, which has not moved since opening. Seattle allows 3.70 goals per game over 10 games and Calgary 4.00, with Daccord at -0.74 GSAx. The Over 5.5 cashes at 6 goals; Seattle scoring 4 is enough to get there if Calgary scores 2.
Calgary has scored 2.40 goals per game over 10 games and is playing without Jonathan Huberdeau: a low-scoring night would sink the Over. We accept that risk, because Calgary generates 2.67 expected goals per game and allows 4.00 actual goals per game.
OFFICIAL PICK: we are taking the Over 5.5 at 1.840. We are not playing the moneyline.
Key Factors
| Team | xGF (10g) | xGA (10g) | Corsi% | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGYB2B |
2.67 | 4.00 | 43.0% | 11.1% | 78.6% |
| SEAB2B |
2.57 | 3.37 | 48.0% | 12.5% | 52.9% |
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Head-to-Head
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
8 of 31 model features (last 5-10 games)
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SEA
Frequently asked questions
When was CGY @ SEA played?
This NHL game was played on 2026-10-04.
Where can I find the prediction for CGY @ SEA?
This ProbWin page shows the predictions our model published before the game (moneyline and totals), the key stats for both sides, and the settled result — every prediction is kept, win or lose, in our public track record.
How are these predictions calculated?
Our NHL statistical models are trained on league history and recomputed daily from team and player stats plus market odds. Every prediction is published before the game and its result is settled publicly.
