Spreads
Official only within the model-vs-market gap window tested walk-forward over six seasons (2020-2025), and only on the underdog side. A gap too small or too large (statistical false signal), or a favorite-side pick, stays a trend.
AI Trends Journal — NFL
An AI trend is a model signal that does not meet every requirement of an official pick: model-vs-market gap outside the validated window, a favorite (our official strategy targets underdogs), or a market under observation (NFL totals never produce official picks). We publish them all, frozen at capture, and settle them against the final score — won or lost. This is our public proving ground: it lets anyone check, in real conditions, that our official thresholds sit in the right place.
Why isn't a trend an official pick?
Totals (Over/Under)
Our NFL totals backtest showed no exploitable edge after the bookmaker margin. Total projections remain displayed on every game page, but no totals pick is ever official.
Best offer recorded
Official picks and trends alike are recorded at the best offer across the bookmakers we compare (line and price weighed by expected value); when no price is available, at the standard -110.
Per-market summary — settled trends
How to read this table: it only shows trends (never our official picks, tracked on the track record). A winning trend does not mean it should have been played: it had not cleared our thresholds. This journal exists to verify, over time, that our thresholds sit in the right place — in both directions.
| Market | Settled trends | Record | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | 21 | 12 won – 9 lost | 57.1% |
| Totals | 64 | 27 won – 37 lost | 42.2% |
| Date | Game | Market | Trend | Model gap | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10 | NE @ CHI24–30 | Totals | Under 50.5 points | +3.6 pts | @ 1.91 | Lost |
| 19/10 | WAS @ SF17–23 | Spread | SF -7.5 | +10.0 pts | @ 1.99 | Lost |
| 18/10 | HOU @ JAX34–31 | Spread | JAX -2.5 | +4.0 pts | @ 1.97 | Lost |
| 18/10 | BUF @ LV33–30 | Totals | Under 53.5 points | +5.0 pts | @ 1.91 | Lost |
| 18/10 | PIT @ TB26–19 | Totals | Under 38.5 points | +4.4 pts | @ 1.91 | Lost |
| 18/10 | NO @ NYG34–27 | Totals | Under 46.5 points | +2.9 pts | @ 1.91 | Lost |
| 18/10 | CAR @ PHI25–14 | Totals | Under 39.5 points | +4.2 pts | @ 1.91 | Won |
| 18/10 | LAC @ KC6–22 | Totals | Over 41.5 points | +1.8 pts | @ 1.91 | Lost |
| 18/10 | LAC @ KC6–22 | Spread | KC -8 | +3.1 pts | @ 2.08 | Won |
| 18/10 | DAL @ GB13–23 | Totals | Under 53.5 points | +3.6 pts | @ 1.91 | Won |
| 18/10 | NYJ @ NE19–26 | Totals | Under 43.5 points | +2.3 pts | @ 1.91 | Lost |
| 18/10 | CHI @ ATL31–23 | Totals | Under 51.5 points | +3.4 pts | @ 1.91 | Lost |
| 18/10 | BAL @ CLE10–13 | Totals | Under 39.5 points | +3.1 pts | @ 1.91 | Won |
| 15/10 | SEA @ DEN14–17 | Spread | SEA -2.5 | +4.2 pts | @ 1.95 | Lost |
| 12/10 | BUF @ LA37–34 | Totals | Under 54.5 points | +2.6 pts | @ 1.91 | Lost |
| 11/10 | BAL @ ATL30–23 | Totals | Under 43.5 points | +2.5 pts | @ 1.91 | Lost |
| 11/10 | LV @ NE17–45 | Totals | Under 45.5 points | +4.0 pts | @ 1.91 | Lost |
| 11/10 | CLE @ NYJ12–17 | Totals | Under 38.5 points | +4.0 pts | @ 1.91 | Won |
| 11/10 | MIN @ NO23–13 | Totals | Under 41.5 points | +3.7 pts | @ 1.91 | Won |
| 11/10 | CLE @ NYJ12–17 | Spread | CLE +2.5 | +8.8 pts | @ 2.00 | Lost |
| 11/10 | DET @ ARI45–21 | Totals | Under 54.5 points | +2.2 pts | @ 1.91 | Lost |
| 11/10 | IND @ PIT22–34 | Totals | Under 41.5 points | +4.1 pts | @ 1.91 | Lost |
| 11/10 | CHI @ GB7–31 | Totals | Under 47.5 points | +2.6 pts | @ 1.91 | Won |
| 11/10 | DEN @ LAC23–17 | Totals | Under 41.5 points | +4.2 pts | @ 1.91 | Won |
| 11/10 | CHI @ GB7–31 | Spread | CHI -1 | +3.9 pts | @ 1.93 | Lost |
| 05/10 | ATL @ NO45–24 | Totals | Under 47.5 points | +3.6 pts | @ 1.91 | Lost |
| 04/10 | NYJ @ CHI12–23 | Spread | CHI -3.5 | +9.3 pts | @ 1.98 | Won |
| 04/10 | LA @ PHI24–20 | Totals | Under 42.5 points | +2.9 pts | @ 1.91 | Lost |
| 04/10 | LAC @ SEA23–30 | Spread | SEA -7.5 | +7.0 pts | @ 2.08 | Lost |
| 04/10 | DAL @ HOU34–30 | Totals | Under 48.5 points | +4.1 pts | @ 1.91 | Lost |
| 04/10 | LAC @ SEA23–30 | Totals | Over 42.5 points | +1.5 pts | @ 1.91 | Won |
| 04/10 | ARI @ NYG24–36 | Spread | NYG +1.5 | +11.6 pts | @ 2.10 | Won |
| 04/10 | ARI @ NYG24–36 | Totals | Under 44.5 points | +1.9 pts | @ 1.91 | Lost |
| 04/10 | NE @ BUF29–26 | Spread | BUF -7 | +3.3 pts | @ 2.04 | Lost |
| 04/10 | GB @ TB17–14 | Totals | Under 38.5 points | +3.1 pts | @ 1.91 | Won |
| 04/10 | DEN @ SF14–24 | Spread | SF -3 | +4.2 pts | @ 1.99 | Won |
| 04/10 | MIA @ MIN10–15 | Totals | Under 38.5 points | +2.8 pts | @ 1.91 | Won |
| 04/10 | KC @ LV30–27 | Totals | Under 47.5 points | +2.2 pts | @ 1.91 | Lost |
| 01/10 | PIT @ CLE24–27 | Totals | Under 38.5 points | +2.2 pts | @ 1.91 | Lost |
| 28/09 | PHI @ CHI7–27 | Spread | CHI +3.5 | +9.5 pts | @ 1.97 | Won |
| 28/09 | PHI @ CHI7–27 | Totals | Under 41.5 points | +2.1 pts | @ 1.91 | Won |
| 27/09 | NYJ @ DET24–31 | Totals | Under 48.5 points | +2.6 pts | @ 1.91 | Lost |
| 27/09 | MIN @ TB23–16 | Totals | Under 42.5 points | +2.9 pts | @ 1.91 | Won |
| 27/09 | TEN @ NYG7–12 | Spread | NYG -2.5 | +4.1 pts | @ 1.93 | Won |
| 27/09 | BAL @ DAL34–31 | Totals | Under 53.5 points | +1.7 pts | @ 1.91 | Lost |
| 27/09 | CAR @ CLE18–21 | Totals | Under 41.5 points | +3.2 pts | @ 1.91 | Won |
| 27/09 | NE @ JAX6–35 | Spread | JAX -2.5 | +4.6 pts | @ 1.83 | Won |
| 27/09 | KC @ MIA24–10 | Totals | Under 45.5 points | +3.8 pts | @ 1.91 | Won |
| 27/09 | NE @ JAX6–35 | Totals | Over 45.5 points | +3.0 pts | @ 1.91 | Lost |
| 27/09 | LV @ NO35–27 | Totals | Under 43.5 points | +2.0 pts | @ 1.91 | Lost |
| 27/09 | SEA @ WAS31–33 | Totals | Over 40.5 points | +2.1 pts | @ 1.91 | Won |
| 27/09 | LAC @ BUF16–24 | Spread | BUF -7.5 | +3.5 pts | @ 2.05 | Won |
| 27/09 | LA @ DEN26–30 | Totals | Under 43.5 points | +2.2 pts | @ 1.91 | Lost |
| 27/09 | CIN @ PIT27–30 | Totals | Under 42.5 points | +3.3 pts | @ 1.91 | Lost |
| 24/09 | ATL @ GB35–14 | Totals | Under 42.5 points | +2.4 pts | @ 1.91 | Lost |
| 21/09 | NYG @ LA6–28 | Totals | Under 47.5 points | +2.0 pts | @ 1.91 | Won |
| 20/09 | JAX @ DEN13–20 | Totals | Under 45.5 points | +1.7 pts | @ 1.91 | Won |
| 20/09 | WAS @ DAL20–37 | Totals | Under 50.5 points | +1.6 pts | @ 1.91 | Lost |
| 20/09 | CLE @ TB23–19 | Spread | CLE +9 | +10.4 pts | @ 1.86 | Won |
| 20/09 | PIT @ NE3–20 | Totals | Under 41.5 points | +3.5 pts | @ 1.91 | Won |
| 20/09 | CLE @ TB23–19 | Totals | Under 41.5 points | +2.2 pts | @ 1.91 | Lost |
| 20/09 | LV @ LAC26–14 | Totals | Under 43.5 points | +2.2 pts | @ 1.91 | Won |
| 20/09 | SEA @ ARI31–7 | Totals | Under 40.5 points | +2.5 pts | @ 1.91 | Won |
| 20/09 | CAR @ ATL34–3 | Totals | Under 43.5 points | +2.5 pts | @ 1.91 | Won |
| 20/09 | MIA @ SF13–35 | Spread | MIA +13.5 | +9.8 pts | @ 1.91 | Lost |
| 20/09 | PHI @ TEN24–20 | Totals | Under 39.5 points | +1.6 pts | @ 1.91 | Lost |
| 20/09 | CIN @ HOU20–6 | Totals | Under 45.5 points | +1.6 pts | @ 1.91 | Won |
| 17/09 | DET @ BUF31–41 | Totals | Under 54.5 points | +3.6 pts | @ 1.91 | Lost |
| 17/09 | DET @ BUF31–41 | Spread | BUF -5 | +3.2 pts | @ 1.88 | Won |
| 14/09 | DEN @ KC10–31 | Totals | Under 43.5 points | +4.8 pts | @ 1.91 | Won |
| 13/09 | BUF @ HOU36–31 | Totals | Under 44.5 points | +3.6 pts | @ 1.91 | Lost |
| 13/09 | MIA @ LV13–27 | Spread | MIA +3.5 | +10.7 pts | @ 1.80 | Lost |
| 13/09 | TB @ CIN27–33 | Totals | Under 50.5 points | +1.9 pts | @ 1.91 | Lost |
| 13/09 | ARI @ LAC26–14 | Totals | Under 47.5 points | +6.3 pts | @ 1.91 | Won |
| 13/09 | WAS @ PHI22–24 | Totals | Under 44.5 points | +2.3 pts | @ 1.91 | Lost |
| 13/09 | BAL @ IND41–23 | Totals | Under 48.5 points | +1.8 pts | @ 1.91 | Lost |
| 13/09 | CLE @ JAX10–34 | Spread | JAX -8.5 | +3.2 pts | @ 1.91 | Won |
| 13/09 | CLE @ JAX10–34 | Totals | Under 40.5 points | +1.9 pts | @ 1.91 | Lost |
| 13/09 | NO @ DET30–31 | Totals | Under 49.5 points | +3.3 pts | @ 1.91 | Lost |
| 13/09 | GB @ MIN22–39 | Totals | Under 46.5 points | +2.4 pts | @ 1.91 | Lost |
| 13/09 | ATL @ PIT13–20 | Totals | Under 40.5 points | +7.2 pts | @ 1.91 | Won |
| 13/09 | DAL @ NYG20–28 | Totals | Under 47.5 points | +4.8 pts | @ 1.91 | Lost |
| 10/09 | SF @ LA27–7 | Totals | Under 48.5 points | +1.8 pts | @ 1.91 | Won |
| 25/01 | NE @ DEN10–7 | Spread | DEN +3.5 | +5.9 pts | @ 1.91 | Won |
| 04/01 | KC @ LV12–14 | Totals | Under 35.5 points | +1.7 pts | @ 1.91 | Won |
Frequently asked questions
What is the "model gap"?
It is the gap, in points, between the victory margin projected by our model and the market line at capture time. A gap of +4 means the model saw the team covering the spread with 4 extra points of margin versus the line.
Why publish losing trends?
Because transparency is our product: the journal freezes every signal at capture and publishes its outcome, won or lost. That is what proves our official picks come from genuinely validated zones, not hindsight selection.
Should a winning trend have been an official pick?
Not necessarily: at single-game scale, variance dominates. A zone only turns official if its hit rate holds on sufficient volume, across several seasons. This journal exists precisely to document those zones in real conditions.
Where can I see official picks and their results?
On the Track Record page — the raw, timestamped journal of every settled official pick — and on the NFL page for today's picks.
