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KC @ LV prediction: AI-powered NFL analysis

NFL · Week 4 · Allegiant Stadium
KCKC
Kansas City Chiefs
Away
★Follow
Record 5-2
VS
04/10/2026
Kickoff 22:25 (Paris time)
LVLV
Las Vegas Raiders
Home
★Follow
Record 4-4
Analysis published before kickoff Best odds across books (CLV) Transparent method
Spread
KCKC
-4.5
Spread
LVLV
+4.5
Total (O/U) 47.5 points
nflverse reference lines

Our picks for this match

Official pick LV +4.5
Odds
1.98
Market
Spread
Taken on 04/10 · 13:05 at odds of 1.98
AI Trend UNDER 47.5
Odds
1.91
Market
Totals (points)
Taken on 04/10 · 13:05 at odds of 1.91
INJURIES & ABSENCES
Kansas City Chiefs
L'Jarius Sneed · CB
Knee — est. return 11/26
Injured Reserve
Mansoor Delane · CB
Shoulder — est. return 11/08
Out
Omarr Norman-Lott · DT
Knee - ACL — est. return 11/08
Out
Peter Woods · DT
Neck — est. return 11/08
Questionable
Andrew Armstrong · WR
Active
Ben VanSumeren · FB
Active
Las Vegas Raiders
Carter Runyon · TE
Foot — est. return 11/08
Injured Reserve
Patrick Johnson · DE
Neck — est. return 11/29
Injured Reserve
Darien Porter · CB
Groin — est. return 11/08
Questionable
Aidan O'Connell · QB
Active
Ashton Jeanty · RB
Active
Brock Bowers · TE
Active
Official injury report — ESPN feed, updated daily.

Our Expert Analysis

PRO
Projected marginLV -0.6CatBoost model
Market lineKC -4.5reference spread
Projected total45.3points (line 47.5)
Best odds at pick1.98pinnacle
View full analysis
Nos Picks
Spread: LV +4.5 @ 1.980 [OFFICIEL]
Total: UNDER 47.5 @ 1.909 [TENDANCE]

CONTEXTE DU MATCH

Semaine 4 NFL — Allegiant Stadium. Analyse synthétique générée automatiquement à partir des données du modèle (le rédactionnel complet n'a pas pu être produit pour ce match).

NOTRE ANALYSE

Spread LV +4.5 — edge 5.10.

Total UNDER 47.5 — edge 2.25.

Repères marché (nflverse) : spread domicile -4.5 · total 47.5

Verdict Probwin

Pick officiel du modèle sur ce match — conviction conforme au seuil de publication.

Key Factors

Points scored/g
18.6vs11.4
Points allowed/g
21.8vs28.6
Pass EPA
-0.63vs-10.80
Turnover diff.
-1.2vs0.0
Record
5-2vs4-4
Roof: dome Surface: grass Allegiant Stadium — Las Vegas, NV
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Head-to-head

3KC
LV2
04/01/26KC — LV12 – 14
29/11/24LV — KC17 – 19
27/10/24KC — LV27 – 20
25/12/23LV — KC20 – 14
26/11/23KC — LV31 – 17

Form & statistics

Team Comparison

8 of 65 model features (last 5-10 games)

KC STAT LV
22.6
Pts/Match ? Points marqués par match en moyenne
22.4
16.8
Pts encaissés ? Points concédés par match (défense)
20.0
331
Yards totaux ? Yards offensifs totaux par match
290
205
Yards passe ? Yards gagnés par la passe (jeu aérien)
192
126
Yards course ? Yards gagnés par la course (jeu au sol)
98
+0.8
Turnover +/- ? Différentiel de balles perdues/récupérées
+0.6
+2.5
EPA/Play ? Expected Points Added - Points attendus ajoutés par action (efficacité offensive)
-6.5
37.5%
3rd Down % ? Pourcentage de conversion en 3ème tentative (prolonger les drives)
35.8%

Frequently asked questions

When was KC @ LV played?

This NFL game was played on 2026-10-04.

Where can I find the prediction for KC @ LV?

This ProbWin page shows the predictions our model published before the game (spreads and totals), the key stats for both sides, and the settled result — every prediction is kept, win or lose, in our public track record.

How are these predictions calculated?

Our NFL statistical models are trained on league history and recomputed daily from team and player stats plus market odds. Every prediction is published before the game and its result is settled publicly.

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