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SEA @ NE prediction: AI-powered NFL analysis

NFL · Week 22 · Levi's Stadium
SEASEA
Seattle Seahawks
Away
★Follow
Record 14-3
VS
08/02/2026
Kickoff 00:30 (Paris time)
NENE
New England Patriots
Home
★Follow
Record 14-3
Analysis published before kickoff Best odds across books (CLV) Transparent method
Spread
SEASEA
-4.5
Spread
NENE
+4.5
Total (O/U) 45.5 points
nflverse reference lines

Our picks for this match

Official pick NE +4.5
Odds
1.91
Market
Spread
Taken on 08/02 · 11:05 at odds of 1.91
INJURIES & ABSENCES
Seattle Seahawks
Beau Stephens · G
Coach's Decision — est. return 11/08
Out
Brandon Pili · DT
Back — est. return 11/08
Out
Charles Cross · OT
Ankle — est. return 11/08
Out
Drew Lock · QB
Elbow — est. return 11/08
Out
Rashid Shaheed · WR
Knee — est. return 11/08
Out
Uchenna Nwosu · LB
Ankle — est. return 11/08
Out
New England Patriots
A.J. Brown · WR
Ankle — est. return 11/08
Out
Mack Hollins · WR
Calf — est. return 11/08
Injured Reserve
Marcus Bryant · OT
Ankle — est. return 11/08
Injured Reserve
TreVeyon Henderson · RB
Illness — est. return 11/08
Out
Gabe Jacas · LB
Knee — est. return 11/08
Questionable
Hunter Henry · TE
Foot — est. return 11/08
Questionable
Official injury report — ESPN feed, updated daily.

Our Expert Analysis

PRO
Projected marginNE -1.3CatBoost model
Market lineSEA -4.5reference spread
Projected total43.1points (line 45.5)
View full analysis

Seattle Seahawks @ New England Patriots

2026-02-08 - Super Bowl LX

NOS PICKS

● SPREAD: NE +4.5 @ 1.909 (Confiance: 62%) - PASSE

CONTEXTE DU MATCH

Super Bowl LX oppose deux equipes a 14-3. Seattle, tete de serie NFC #1 sous Mike Macdonald, affronte le New England de Drake Maye, revelation de la saison apres deux annees a 4-13. Match sur terrain neutre au Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara. Conditions meteo favorables (67F, vent leger).

ABSENCES NOTABLES

● NE: Harold Landry (knee, Q) et Robert Spillane (ankle, Q) - attendus en jeu. Drake Maye cleared.
● SEA: Robbie Ouzts (neck, Q) seul absent potentiel. Nick Emmanwori (ankle) cleared. Effectif quasi-complet.

NOTRE ANALYSE

SPREAD: Le modele predit NE gagnant de 1.3 points, donnant un edge de 5.85 sur la ligne +4.5. Les Super Bowls sont historiquement serres (60%+ decides par 7 points ou moins), ce qui favorise le cote underdog. La defense NE, menee par Milton Williams (6e en pass-rush win rate), peut limiter l'attaque de Seattle. Cependant, Drake Maye inquiete serieusement en playoffs: 55.8% de completion et 15 sacks en 3 matchs. La pass rush de Seattle est top 3 en pressions totales, avec une couverture supplementaire car ils blitzent peu. Sam Darnold a ete nettement meilleur en playoffs (69.8% comp, 4 TD, 0 INT). 82.8% des experts favorisent Seattle. Le record ATS de Seattle (12-5, 5-2 en tant que favori de 4.5+) est superieur a celui de NE (11-11).

POINTS DE VIGILANCE

● Pass rush SEA vs Maye: 15 sacks en 3 matchs playoffs pour Maye, face a la 3e meilleure defense en pressions. Risque de turnovers et sacks decisifs.
● Consensus ecrasant pro-SEA (82.8% experts) suggere que le marche a correctement evalue ce matchup. La ligne -4.5 pourrait meme etre genereuse pour NE.

VERDICT PROBWIN

Malgre un edge modelise de 5.85 et la tendance historique des Super Bowls serres, les difficultes en playoffs de Maye face a une elite defensive pass rush de Seattle representent un risque trop eleve. Confiance a 62%, sous le seuil de 65%. PASSE.

Key Factors

Points scored/g
26.0vs29.0
Points allowed/g
14.0vs21.4
Pass EPA
0.49vs6.68
Turnover diff.
1.0vs0.0
Record
14-3vs14-3
Roof: outdoors Surface: grass Levi's Stadium — Foxborough, MA
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Head-to-head

3SEA
NE0
15/09/24SEA — NE23 – 20
20/09/20NE — SEA30 – 35
13/11/16SEA — NE31 – 24

Form & statistics

Team Comparison

8 of 65 model features (last 5-10 games)

SEA STAT NE
30.0
Pts/Match ? Points marqués par match en moyenne
26.8
16.6
Pts encaissés ? Points concédés par match (défense)
9.2
370
Yards totaux ? Yards offensifs totaux par match
367
217
Yards passe ? Yards gagnés par la passe (jeu aérien)
207
153
Yards course ? Yards gagnés par la course (jeu au sol)
160
0.0
Turnover +/- ? Différentiel de balles perdues/récupérées
+1.2
+8.6
EPA/Play ? Expected Points Added - Points attendus ajoutés par action (efficacité offensive)
+2.5
51.6%
3rd Down % ? Pourcentage de conversion en 3ème tentative (prolonger les drives)
36.1%

Frequently asked questions

When was SEA @ NE played?

This NFL game was played on 2026-02-08.

Where can I find the prediction for SEA @ NE?

This ProbWin page shows the predictions our model published before the game (spreads and totals), the key stats for both sides, and the settled result — every prediction is kept, win or lose, in our public track record.

How are these predictions calculated?

Our NFL statistical models are trained on league history and recomputed daily from team and player stats plus market odds. Every prediction is published before the game and its result is settled publicly.

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