Game totals (FT)
Official only when the model states ≥56% — the zone where its hit rate is proven over two backtest seasons. Below that, the read is published as a trend.
AI Trends Journal — MLB
An AI trend is a model signal that doesn't meet every requirement of an official pick: confidence below the validated threshold, unconfirmed pitchers, or a zone still under observation. We publish all of them, frozen at pick time with their stated probability, and settle them against the final score — won or lost. This is our public proving ground: once a zone shows over time that “stated X% = realized X%” at a paying price, it graduates to official.
Why is a trend not an official pick?
First-5 (F5)
Baseball's noisiest market (≈5 runs average, ±3.3 SD): our F5 model is still being stabilized — everything stays a trend for now.
Run line (±1.5)
Official inside the two-season-validated 53-60% confidence zone, with confirmed pitchers and a price that pays the probability. Very high confidences (60%+) are under observation: they win often… at prices that don't always pay.
First inning (NRFI/YRFI)
New engine (July 2026), very well calibrated in backtest — but no zone has yet proven a net profit at real prices across two seasons. Everything is published as a trend, settled nightly, and the zone goes official only if live results confirm.
Live calibration — stated vs realized (last 30 days)
How to read these tables: an honest model must realize what it states — if it says 56%, it should win ~56% of the time. Since June 2026 we have publicly tracked every trend of our historical model — and that tracking showed it stated more than it delivered, the more so the more “confident” it claimed to be (“Historical model” tables, broken down market by market: a model can be right on totals and wrong on the run line). Those lessons fed a progressive overhaul of our models: four seasons of consolidated data, calibration validated over two full backtest seasons. The “New generation” tables track each engine day by day under the same rule — you watch their calibration build live, unfiltered and untouched.
Historical model — Run line
| Stated confidence | Settled trends | Stated (avg) | Realized | Avg odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56-60% | 20 | 58.8% | 50.0% | @ 1.64 |
| ≥ 60% | 9 | 64.7% | 66.7% | @ 1.56 |
New generation — Game total
| Stated confidence | Settled trends | Stated (avg) | Realized | Avg odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53-56% | 23 | 54.0% | 39.1% | @ 1.93 |
| 56-60% | 7 | 56.9% | 57.1% | @ 1.90 |
New generation — First-5 total
| Stated confidence | Settled trends | Stated (avg) | Realized | Avg odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53-56% | 5 | 53.3% | 80.0% | @ 1.89 |
New generation — Run line
| Stated confidence | Settled trends | Stated (avg) | Realized | Avg odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56-60% | 12 | 57.8% | 75.0% | @ 1.65 |
| ≥ 60% | 17 | 64.5% | 58.8% | @ 1.65 |
New generation — First inning (NRFI/YRFI)
| Stated confidence | Settled trends | Stated (avg) | Realized | Avg odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53-56% | 30 | 54.3% | 60.0% | @ 1.86 |
| 56-60% | 24 | 57.5% | 37.5% | @ 1.82 |
| ≥ 60% | 13 | 61.8% | 53.8% | @ 1.85 |
| Date | Game | Market | Trend | Stated prob. | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | CLE @ KCR2–3 | IARun line | KCR +1.5 | 41.2% | @ 1.71 | Won |
| 27/09 | CHC @ BOS6–2 | IARun line | BOS +1.5 | 58.8% | @ 1.64 | Lost |
| 27/09 | CIN @ TOR1–5 | IARun line | CIN +1.5 | 58.8% | @ 1.74 | Lost |
| 27/09 | ARI @ SDP4–9 | IARun line | SDP +1.5 | 58.8% | @ 1.82 | Won |
| 27/09 | TBR @ PHI3–7 | IARun line | TBR +1.5 | 63.4% | @ 1.76 | Lost |
| 27/09 | CIN @ TOR1–5 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 62.0% | @ 1.93 | Lost |
| 27/09 | LAA @ SEA3–7 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 55.6% | @ 1.81 | Won |
| 27/09 | ARI @ SDP4–9 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 54.0% | @ 1.88 | Won |
| 27/09 | TBR @ PHI3–7 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 57.7% | @ 1.78 | Lost |
| 27/09 | STL @ MIL4–6 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 53.1% | @ 1.73 | Lost |
| 27/09 | ATL @ MIA3–5 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 56.7% | @ 1.88 | Lost |
| 27/09 | PIT @ DET4–2 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 55.2% | @ 1.84 | Lost |
| 27/09 | COL @ CHW2–4 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 57.3% | @ 1.90 | Lost |
| 27/09 | TBR @ PHI3–7 | FTGame total | Over 6.5 | 54.8% | @ 1.88 | Won |
| 27/09 | CHC @ BOS6–2 | FTGame total | Over 7.5 | 53.2% | @ 1.98 | Won |
| 27/09 | HOU @ OAK9–0 | FTGame total | Under 10.0 | 55.3% | @ 1.94 | Won |
| 27/09 | CIN @ TOR1–5 | RLRun line | CIN +1.5 | 57.0% | @ 1.74 | Lost |
| 27/09 | ARI @ SDP4–9 | RLRun line | SDP +1.5 | 57.8% | @ 1.77 | Won |
| 27/09 | TBR @ PHI3–7 | RLRun line | TBR +1.5 | 59.3% | @ 1.65 | Lost |
| 27/09 | CLE @ KCR2–3 | RLRun line | KCR +1.5 | 71.5% | @ 1.64 | Won |
| 27/09 | CHC @ BOS6–2 | RLRun line | BOS +1.5 | 63.4% | @ 1.60 | Lost |
| 27/09 | LAD @ SFG5–1 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 53.8% | @ 2.01 | Lost |
| 27/09 | CLE @ KCR2–3 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 55.3% | @ 1.88 | Lost |
| 27/09 | HOU @ OAK9–0 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 53.5% | @ 2.13 | Won |
| 26/09 | LAD @ SFG4–3 | IARun line | LAD -1.5 | 58.8% | @ 1.67 | Lost |
| 26/09 | STL @ MIL2–3 | IARun line | STL +1.5 | 58.8% | @ 1.65 | Won |
| 26/09 | ATL @ MIA8–3 | IARun line | MIA +1.5 | 58.8% | @ 1.65 | Lost |
| 26/09 | NYM @ WSN7–1 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 55.5% | @ 1.92 | Lost |
| 26/09 | CIN @ TOR5–1 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 56.0% | @ 1.96 | Lost |
| 26/09 | LAD @ SFG4–3 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 56.8% | @ 1.78 | Won |
| 26/09 | TBR @ PHI12–1 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 57.8% | @ 1.68 | Lost |
| 26/09 | STL @ MIL2–3 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 54.3% | @ 1.79 | Won |
| 26/09 | PIT @ DET3–4 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 55.3% | @ 2.02 | Won |
| 26/09 | COL @ CHW9–6 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 56.5% | @ 1.94 | Won |
| 26/09 | HOU @ OAK13–2 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 53.3% | @ 2.11 | Lost |
| 26/09 | PIT @ DET3–4 | FTGame total | Under 9.0 | 53.0% | @ 1.92 | Won |
| 26/09 | HOU @ OAK13–2 | FTGame total | Under 9.5 | 53.1% | @ 2.00 | Lost |
| 26/09 | LAD @ SFG4–3 | RLRun line | SFG +1.5 | 64.8% | @ 2.41 | Won |
| 26/09 | STL @ MIL2–3 | RLRun line | STL +1.5 | 59.8% | @ 1.64 | Won |
| 26/09 | ATL @ MIA8–3 | RLRun line | MIA +1.5 | 65.5% | @ 1.63 | Lost |
| 25/09 | ATL @ MIA0–3 | IARun line | MIA +1.5 | 58.8% | @ 1.58 | Won |
| 25/09 | LAA @ SEA7–5 | IARun line | LAA +1.5 | 64.0% | @ 1.47 | Won |
| 25/09 | CLE @ KCR12–9 | IARun line | KCR +1.5 | 58.8% | @ 1.70 | Lost |
| 25/09 | CHC @ BOS3–4 | IARun line | BOS +1.5 | 68.6% | @ 1.53 | Won |
| 25/09 | CHC @ BOS0–2 | IARun line | BOS +1.5 | 64.0% | @ 1.56 | Won |
| 25/09 | NYM @ WSN6–7 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 57.9% | @ 1.83 | Lost |
| 25/09 | LAA @ SEA7–5 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 59.5% | @ 1.67 | Lost |
| 25/09 | TBR @ PHI2–0 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 59.2% | @ 1.69 | Lost |
| 25/09 | TEX @ MIN2–10 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 56.4% | @ 1.69 | Lost |
| 25/09 | STL @ MIL4–8 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 54.4% | @ 1.97 | Won |
| 25/09 | COL @ CHW1–6 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 58.0% | @ 1.96 | Won |
| 25/09 | HOU @ OAK5–6 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 55.3% | @ 1.99 | Won |
| 25/09 | TBR @ PHI2–0 | FTGame total | Over 6.5 | 54.1% | @ 1.88 | Lost |
| 25/09 | BAL @ NYY3–6 | FTGame total | Over 6.5 | 56.5% | @ 1.85 | Won |
| 25/09 | BAL @ NYY10–2 | FTGame total | Over 6.5 | 56.7% | @ 1.85 | Won |
| 25/09 | STL @ MIL4–8 | FTGame total | Under 8.0 | 53.3% | @ 1.88 | Lost |
| 25/09 | CHC @ BOS3–4 | FTGame total | Over 6.5 | 55.4% | @ 1.97 | Won |
| 25/09 | CHC @ BOS0–2 | FTGame total | Over 6.5 | 54.6% | @ 1.97 | Lost |
| 25/09 | HOU @ OAK5–6 | FTGame total | Under 9.0 | 53.4% | @ 1.93 | Lost |
| 25/09 | LAA @ SEA7–5 | RLRun line | LAA +1.5 | 66.6% | @ 1.47 | Won |
| 25/09 | ATL @ MIA0–3 | RLRun line | MIA +1.5 | 63.4% | @ 1.58 | Won |
| 25/09 | CLE @ KCR12–9 | RLRun line | KCR +1.5 | 72.5% | @ 1.68 | Lost |
| 25/09 | LAD @ SFG2–0 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 56.6% | @ 1.72 | Won |
| 25/09 | BAL @ NYY3–6 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 65.7% | @ 2.32 | Lost |
| 25/09 | BAL @ NYY10–2 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 65.7% | @ 2.20 | Lost |
| 25/09 | CLE @ KCR12–9 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 58.0% | @ 1.68 | Lost |
| 25/09 | CHC @ BOS3–4 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 53.1% | @ 1.62 | Lost |
| 25/09 | CHC @ BOS0–2 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 54.0% | @ 1.56 | Won |
| 24/09 | NYM @ TEX1–3 | IARun line | NYM +1.5 | 58.8% | @ 1.56 | Lost |
| 24/09 | STL @ PIT1–2 | IARun line | STL +1.5 | 58.8% | @ 1.63 | Won |
| 24/09 | SDP @ LAD4–2 | IARun line | SDP +1.5 | 61.9% | @ 1.70 | Won |
| 24/09 | CHW @ KCR9–1 | IARun line | KCR +1.5 | 58.8% | @ 1.73 | Lost |
| 24/09 | MIA @ CHC1–2 | IARun line | MIA +1.5 | 58.8% | @ 1.83 | Won |
| 24/09 | CLE @ BOS1–0 | IARun line | CLE +1.5 | 70.7% | @ 1.51 | Won |
| 24/09 | NYM @ TEX1–3 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 61.9% | @ 1.92 | Won |
| 24/09 | LAA @ SEA6–4 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 54.2% | @ 1.78 | Won |
| 24/09 | STL @ PIT1–2 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 61.6% | @ 1.73 | Lost |
| 24/09 | TBR @ NYY4–6 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 60.8% | @ 1.60 | Won |
| 24/09 | SDP @ LAD4–2 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 59.4% | @ 1.81 | Won |
| 24/09 | ARI @ COL12–8 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 58.8% | @ 1.83 | Won |
| 24/09 | MIA @ CHC1–2 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 53.3% | @ 2.09 | Lost |
| 24/09 | CLE @ BOS1–0 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 60.0% | @ 1.68 | Won |
| 24/09 | CIN @ ATL7–6 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 56.5% | @ 1.91 | Won |
| 24/09 | HOU @ OAK7–5 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 56.5% | @ 1.63 | Lost |
| 24/09 | MIL @ PHI5–1 | FTGame total | Over 7.5 | 54.0% | @ 1.87 | Lost |
| 24/09 | MIA @ CHC1–2 | FTGame total | Over 7.0 | 53.2% | @ 1.93 | Lost |
| 24/09 | CIN @ ATL7–6 | FTGame total | Over 7.5 | 53.2% | @ 1.90 | Won |
| 24/09 | HOU @ OAK7–5 | FTGame total | Under 11.0 | 56.7% | @ 1.97 | Lost |
| 24/09 | STL @ PIT1–2 | RLRun line | STL +1.5 | 60.4% | @ 1.63 | Won |
| 24/09 | SDP @ LAD4–2 | RLRun line | SDP +1.5 | 61.2% | @ 1.69 | Won |
| 24/09 | CHW @ KCR9–1 | RLRun line | KCR +1.5 | 69.7% | @ 1.72 | Lost |
| 24/09 | MIA @ CHC1–2 | RLRun line | MIA +1.5 | 57.0% | @ 1.82 | Won |
| 24/09 | CLE @ BOS1–0 | RLRun line | CLE +1.5 | 58.3% | @ 1.54 | Won |
| 24/09 | MIL @ PHI5–1 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 56.0% | @ 1.99 | Lost |
| 24/09 | CHW @ KCR9–1 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 55.2% | @ 1.83 | Won |
| 23/09 | MIL @ PHI4–1 | IARun line | PHI +1.5 | 41.2% | @ 1.70 | Lost |
| 23/09 | WSN @ DET4–2 | IARun line | WSN +1.5 | 41.2% | @ 1.71 | Won |
| 23/09 | NYM @ TEX7–2 | IARun line | NYM +1.5 | 64.0% | @ 1.45 | Won |
| 23/09 | HOU @ SEA5–6 | IARun line | HOU +1.5 | 58.8% | @ 1.56 | Won |
| 23/09 | TBR @ NYY2–9 | IARun line | TBR +1.5 | 58.8% | @ 1.52 | Lost |
| 23/09 | TOR @ BAL2–4 | IARun line | TOR +1.5 | 64.0% | @ 1.48 | Lost |
| 23/09 | LAA @ OAK3–7 | IARun line | OAK +1.5 | 58.8% | @ 1.72 | Won |
| 23/09 | HOU @ SEA5–6 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 53.8% | @ 1.81 | Won |
| 23/09 | MIL @ PHI4–1 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 56.4% | @ 1.70 | Lost |
| 23/09 | CHW @ KCR4–5 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 61.6% | @ 2.01 | Won |
| 23/09 | ARI @ COL5–3 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 59.5% | @ 1.72 | Won |
| 23/09 | CLE @ BOS0–1 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 55.6% | @ 1.66 | Won |
| 23/09 | LAA @ OAK3–7 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 53.2% | @ 1.86 | Won |
| 23/09 | NYM @ TEX7–2 | FTGame total | Over 7.5 | 54.0% | @ 1.94 | Won |
| 23/09 | TBR @ NYY2–9 | FTGame total | Over 6.5 | 56.4% | @ 1.94 | Won |
| 23/09 | WSN @ DET4–2 | FTGame total | Over 7.5 | 57.4% | @ 1.93 | Lost |
| 23/09 | CLE @ BOS0–1 | FTGame total | Over 6.5 | 55.3% | @ 1.87 | Lost |
| 23/09 | CIN @ ATL2–3 | FTGame total | Over 7.5 | 54.0% | @ 2.03 | Lost |
| 23/09 | HOU @ SEA5–6 | F5First-5 total | Under 4.5 | 53.7% | @ 1.93 | Lost |
| 23/09 | NYM @ TEX7–2 | RLRun line | NYM +1.5 | 59.4% | @ 1.43 | Won |
| 23/09 | HOU @ SEA5–6 | RLRun line | HOU +1.5 | 63.3% | @ 1.56 | Won |
| 23/09 | STL @ PIT5–1 | RLRun line | STL +1.5 | 64.7% | @ 1.48 | Won |
| 23/09 | MIL @ PHI4–1 | RLRun line | PHI +1.5 | 67.8% | @ 1.63 | Lost |
| 23/09 | TBR @ NYY2–9 | RLRun line | TBR +1.5 | 57.5% | @ 1.51 | Lost |
| 23/09 | WSN @ DET4–2 | RLRun line | WSN +1.5 | 60.2% | @ 1.68 | Won |
Frequently asked questions
What is the “stated probability”?
The calibrated probability the model gave its trend at pick time. Our transparency commitment: over time, a zone stated at 56% must win ~56% of the time — this page lets you verify it.
Why publish losing trends?
Because a complete record is the only honest one. Every trend is frozen at pick time and settled against the final score, no filtering.
When does a trend become an official pick?
When its confidence zone has proven — in a two-season backtest AND live — that the stated rate is realized at a price that pays it. Official MLB picks follow those validated zones.
