PHI @ NYM MLB prediction: AI analysis & picks
Our picks for this match
Our Expert Analysis
PROView full analysis
PROBABLE STARTERS
GAME CONTEXT
This is the third game of the current series at Citi Field. Philadelphia took the opener 3-0 before New York answered with a 6-3 victory, setting up a rubber-match feel in this NL East rivalry. The Philadelphia Phillies (85-69) are pushing for a playoff spot, while the New York Mets (70-84) are playing out their final home series of the 2026 season.
KEY ABSENCES
GAME SCRIPT
Scott (xERA 3.69) holds a clear edge over Painter (xERA 4.55) through the first five innings. In his most recent start (Sept. 13), Scott punched out 7 over 6.0 IP while issuing just 2 BB — a strikeout-heavy profile well-suited to suppressing a Philadelphia lineup that posts a 0.196 K rate vs. starters. Painter, by contrast, walked 4 in 5.0 IP in his last outing (Sept. 13), a command issue that could prove costly against a Mets offense carrying a .343 wOBA vs. starting pitchers — well above Philadelphia's .284 mark on the same split. Once both starters exit, the bullpen edge stays with the home side: New York's 'pen sits at a 4.22 ERA over the last 14 days versus a Philadelphia bullpen at 5.09. Weather (71°F, 7 mph wind) and a 0.95 park factor round out a neutral, slightly pitcher-friendly environment.
OUR ANALYSIS
The case for NYM -1.5 rests on three converging edges: a meaningful xERA gap between starters (3.69 vs. 4.55), a superior bullpen over the last 14 days (4.22 vs. 5.09 ERA), and a more productive offense against starting pitching (.343 wOBA). Painter's command issues — 4 BB in 5.0 IP last time out — open the door for early New York rallies, and the Mets showed yesterday's 6-3 win that they can capitalize on weaker pitching in this series. At 2.700 odds and 50% confidence, backing the home side makes sense here, but stake proportionately to the margin.
Philadelphia (85-69) is the objectively better team in this matchup, and playoff implications tend to sharpen focus down the stretch. Painter has shown legitimate upside in recent starts — 7.0 IP, 0 ER on Sept. 2 and 7.0 IP, 1 ER on Aug. 22 — proof that he can go deep and keep lineups quiet. Scott, meanwhile, has had his rough outings (4 ER on Aug. 22, 3 ER on both Aug. 28 and Aug. 16), and a -1.5 run line demands more than just a win. At 50% confidence, this risk comes with the territory — we're still on board, but a measured stake reflects the reality of the margin.
The technical edges tonight favor New York — stronger starter, better bullpen, and a more productive offense against starters — but Philadelphia's playoff drive and Painter's upside keep this from being a clear-cut spot. Bet NYM -1.5 at a measured stake.
Key Factors
Unlock all picks and the full analysis
The verdict on every market, the full written analysis, absences, referee stats and the best price from around ten bookmakers — no commitment.
Secure Stripe payment — Analysis independent from the betting market
Head-to-Head
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
5 of 39 model features (last 5-10 games)
PHI
STAT
NYM
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 09/18 | @ NYM | 3-6 |
| 09/17 | @ NYM | 3-0 |
| 09/16 | @ WSN | 3-0 |
| 09/15 | @ WSN | 3-6 |
| 09/13 | @ ATL | 9-4 |
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 09/18 | vs PHI | 6-3 |
| 09/17 | vs PHI | 0-3 |
| 09/16 | vs BAL | 1-7 |
| 09/15 | vs BAL | 5-7 |
| 09/14 | vs BAL | 1-2 |
| Pitcher | Starts | F5 vs Line | F5 Over% | F5 Signal | FT vs Line | FT Over% | FT Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Painter (AWAY) | 12 | -0.63 | 41.7% | - | 0.00 | 50.0% | - |
| Christian Scott (HOME) | 11 | -0.55 | 36.4% | - | 0.00 | 50.0% | - |
| Date | vs | IP | ER | H | BB | K | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/24 | MIL | 6.00 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 1.50 |
| 09/19 | NYM | 5.33 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 6.75 |
| 09/13 | ATL | 5.00 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1.80 |
| 09/08 | HOU | 5.00 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 9.00 |
| 09/02 | ARI | 7.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 0.00 |
| Date | vs | IP | ER | H | BB | K | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/19 | PHI | 4.67 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 5.78 |
| 09/13 | NYY | 6.00 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 3.00 |
| 09/06 | SFG | 4.67 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 3.85 |
| 08/28 | HOU | 5.33 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 5.07 |
| 08/22 | CHW | 4.67 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 7.71 |
Frequently asked questions
When was PHI @ NYM played?
This MLB game was played on 2026-09-19.
Where can I find the prediction for PHI @ NYM?
This ProbWin page shows the predictions our model published before the game (F5 and full-game totals, spreads), the key stats for both sides, and the settled result — every prediction is kept, win or lose, in our public track record.
How are these predictions calculated?
Our MLB statistical models are trained on league history and recomputed daily from team and player stats plus market odds. Every prediction is published before the game and its result is settled publicly.
