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PHI @ NYM MLB prediction: AI analysis & picks

MLB — Regular Season
PHIPHI
PHI
Away
Follow
Andrew PainterRCONFIRMED
xERA 4.55
Last 5 LWWLW
VS
2026-09-19
NYMNYM
NYM
Home
Follow
Christian ScottRCONFIRMED
xERA 3.69
Last 5 WLLLL
Analysis due before first pitch Time-stamped odds (CLV) Transparent methodology
First 5
Full Time
Run line · -1.5 2.70 open -1.5 → -3.5
Multi-bookmaker odds · time-stamped

Our picks for this match

2 AI picks on this match Model confidence, edge vs market and odds — members only.
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Our Expert Analysis

AI Analysis

PROBABLE STARTERS

Home: Christian Scott (RHP) — xERA 3.69
Away: Andrew Painter (RHP) — xERA 4.55

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GAME CONTEXT

This is the third game of the current series at Citi Field. Philadelphia took the opener 3-0 before New York answered with a 6-3 victory, setting up a rubber-match feel in this NL East rivalry. The Philadelphia Phillies (85-69) are pushing for a playoff spot, while the New York Mets (70-84) are playing out their final home series of the 2026 season.

KEY ABSENCES

Home (NYM): Jared Young (1B), Cionel Perez (RP), Daniel Duarte (RP) + 5 on long-term IL
Away (PHI): Jonathan Bowlan (RP), Jesus Luzardo (SP), Adolis Garcia (RF) + 4 on long-term IL

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Key Factors

Pitcher hand
RvsR
F5 Over%
36.4%vs30.0%
FT Over%
50.0%vs50.0%
F5 Signal
UNDERvsUNDER
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Odds Comparison

Comparer les cotes

Bookmaker Full Time OVER Full Time UNDER First 5 OVER First 5 UNDER Spreads HOME Spreads AWAY
Pinnacle (réf.) 2.01@8.5 1.87@8.5 1.95@4.5 1.90@4.5 2.69@-1.5 1.52@-1.5
1xBet 2.00@8.5 1.92@8.5 1.56@1.5 2.63@1.5
888sport 2.00@8.5 1.80@8.5 2.55@-1.5 1.50@-1.5
Betsson 1.90@8.5 1.86@8.5 2.54@-1.5 1.49@-1.5
Coolbet 1.91@8.5 1.91@8.5 2.60@-1.5 1.50@-1.5
LeoVegas 1.88@8.5 1.90@8.5 2.50@-1.5 1.50@-1.5
BetVictor 1.85@8.5 1.91@8.5 2.55@-1.5 1.50@-1.5
Coral 1.95@8.5 1.80@8.5 1.44@1.5 2.62@1.5
Ladbrokes 1.95@8.5 1.80@8.5 1.44@1.5 2.62@1.5
PMU 1.82@8.5 1.74@8.5

Cotes pré-match indicatives — la meilleure cote est en vert.

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Head-to-Head

2PHI
NYM3
09/18/26PHI @ NYM3 – 6
09/17/26PHI @ NYM3 – 0
07/19/26NYM @ PHI6 – 1
07/18/26NYM @ PHI1 – 6
07/16/26NYM @ PHI4 – 1

Form & Stats

Recent Results
PHI
DateGameScore
09/18@ NYM3-6
09/17@ NYM3-0
09/16@ WSN3-0
09/15@ WSN3-6
09/13@ ATL9-4
NYM
DateGameScore
09/18vs PHI6-3
09/17vs PHI0-3
09/16vs BAL1-7
09/15vs BAL5-7
09/14vs BAL1-2
Pitcher impact on totals
PitcherStartsF5 vs LineF5 Over%F5 SignalFT vs LineFT Over%FT Signal
Andrew Painter (AWAY)12-0.9136.4%UNDER0.0050.0%-
Christian Scott (HOME)11-0.8530.0%UNDER0.0050.0%-
Last 5 starts
Andrew Painter (PHI)
DatevsIPERHBBKERA
09/13ATL5.0016431.80
09/08HOU5.00510269.00
09/02ARI7.0002060.00
08/28LAA6.0032364.50
08/22STL7.0015081.29
Christian Scott (NYM)
DatevsIPERHBBKERA
09/13NYY6.0023273.00
09/06SFG4.6724073.85
08/28HOU5.3331525.07
08/22CHW4.6745467.71
08/16WSN6.3335274.27
Line Movement
Run line
-1.5 -3.5 -2.0

Frequently asked questions

When is PHI @ NYM played?

This MLB game is scheduled for 2026-09-19.

Where can I find a prediction for PHI @ NYM?

This ProbWin page shows our model's probabilities for F5 and full-game totals, spreads, the key stats for both sides and, on game day, a full written analysis. Every prediction is then settled in our public track record.

How are these predictions calculated?

Our MLB statistical models are trained on league history and recomputed daily from team and player stats plus market odds. Every prediction is published before the game and its result is settled publicly.

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