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PHI @ NYM MLB prediction: AI analysis & picks

MLB — Regular Season
PHIPHI
PHI
Away
Follow
Andrew PainterRCONFIRMED
xERA 5.55
Last 5 WWLWL
VS
2026-09-18
NYMNYM
NYM
Home
Follow
Zac ThorntonLCONFIRMED
xERA 4.61
Last 5 LLLLL
Analysis due before first pitch Time-stamped odds (CLV) Transparent methodology
First 5
Full Time
Run line · -1.5 2.84
Multi-bookmaker odds · time-stamped

Our picks for this match

2 AI picks on this match Model confidence, edge vs market and odds — members only.
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Our Expert Analysis

AI Analysis

LANCEURS CONFIRMÉS

Domicile : Zac Thornton (gaucher) — xERA 4.61
Extérieur : Andrew Painter (droitier) — xERA 5.55

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CONTEXTE DU MATCH

Les Philadelphia Phillies (85-68) arrivent à Citi Field avec une avance de 1-0 dans cette série après leur victoire 3-0 la veille. Les New York Mets (69-84), qui enchaînent cinq défaites consécutives, cherchent à renverser la dynamique face à leur rival de NL Est en fin de saison régulière. Le match oppose deux équipes aux trajectoires opposées à cette période charnière.

ABSENCES NOTABLES

Domicile (NYM) : Devin Williams (RP, 15-Day-IL), Cionel Perez (RP, 15-Day-IL), Jared Young (1B, DTD) + 5 absents longue durée
Extérieur (PHI) : Jesus Luzardo (SP, 15-Day-IL), Jonathan Bowlan (RP, DTD), Adolis Garcia (RF, 60-Day-IL) + 4 absents longue durée

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Key Factors

Pitcher hand
RvsL
F5 Over%
36.4%vs
FT Over%
50.0%vs
F5 Signal
UNDERvs
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Odds Comparison

Comparer les cotes

Bookmaker Full Time OVER Full Time UNDER First 5 OVER First 5 UNDER Spreads HOME Spreads AWAY
Pinnacle (réf.) 1.88@8.0 2.02@8.0 1.95@4.5 1.92@4.5 2.66@-1.5 1.54@-1.5
1xBet 2.02@8.5 1.90@8.5 2.65@-1.5 1.56@-1.5
888sport 2.00@8.5 1.80@8.5 2.55@-1.5 1.50@-1.5
Betsson 1.90@8.5 1.86@8.5 2.45@-1.5 1.53@-1.5
Coolbet 1.85@8.0 1.96@8.0 2.55@-1.5 1.52@-1.5
LeoVegas 1.98@8.5 1.80@8.5 2.50@-1.5 1.53@-1.5
BetVictor 1.95@8.5 1.80@8.5 2.50@-1.5 1.50@-1.5
Coral 1.83@8.0 1.91@8.0 1.15@3.5 5.00@3.5
Ladbrokes 1.83@8.0 1.91@8.0 1.15@3.5 5.00@3.5
PMU 1.72@8.0 1.85@8.0

Cotes pré-match indicatives — la meilleure cote est en vert.

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Head-to-Head

3PHI
NYM2
09/17/26PHI @ NYM3 – 0
07/19/26NYM @ PHI6 – 1
07/18/26NYM @ PHI1 – 6
07/16/26NYM @ PHI4 – 1
06/28/26PHI @ NYM5 – 4

Form & Stats

Recent Results
PHI
DateGameScore
09/17@ NYM3-0
09/16@ WSN3-0
09/15@ WSN3-6
09/13@ ATL9-4
09/12@ ATL2-12
NYM
DateGameScore
09/17vs PHI0-3
09/16vs BAL1-7
09/15vs BAL5-7
09/14vs BAL1-2
09/13@ NYY0-2
Pitcher impact on totals
PitcherStartsF5 vs LineF5 Over%F5 SignalFT vs LineFT Over%FT Signal
Andrew Painter (AWAY)11-0.9136.4%UNDER0.0050.0%-
Last 5 starts
Andrew Painter (PHI)
DatevsIPERHBBKERA
09/13ATL5.0016431.80
09/08HOU5.00510269.00
09/02ARI7.0002060.00
08/28LAA6.0032364.50
08/22STL7.0015081.29
Zac Thornton (NYM)
DatevsIPERHBBKERA
09/12NYY7.0025142.57
09/05SFG5.00671610.80
08/30HOU5.0026053.60
08/25MIL6.0017041.50
08/18SDP5.0037175.40
Line Movement
Lines stable since open — no significant movement.

Frequently asked questions

When is PHI @ NYM played?

This MLB game is scheduled for 2026-09-18.

Where can I find a prediction for PHI @ NYM?

This ProbWin page shows our model's probabilities for F5 and full-game totals, spreads, the key stats for both sides and, on game day, a full written analysis. Every prediction is then settled in our public track record.

How are these predictions calculated?

Our MLB statistical models are trained on league history and recomputed daily from team and player stats plus market odds. Every prediction is published before the game and its result is settled publicly.

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