NYY @ ARI MLB prediction: AI analysis & picks
Our picks for this match
Our Expert Analysis
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PROBABLE STARTERS
GAME CONTEXT
The New York Yankees (89-64) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (80-74) meet at Chase Field for the second game of this series. New York dominated the opener yesterday (9-2) and looks to tighten its grip on the series. Arizona, at home, needs a bounce-back to avoid falling 0-2.
KEY ABSENCES
GAME SCRIPT
Through the first five innings, the matchup clearly favors Schlittler: his xERA of 2.86 versus Pfaadt's 3.85 reflects a genuine gap, backed by recent game logs. Schlittler was virtually untouchable in his last start (6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 8 K), while Pfaadt surrendered 6 ER on 10 hits in 6.2 IP on September 12th. New York's offense posts a .311 wOBA against opposing starters — slightly ahead of Arizona's .301 — putting further pressure on a Pfaadt who has struggled to find his rhythm lately. Chase Field's retractable dome removes any weather factor (park factor 1.02). If the game shifts to the bullpens, New York's unit (14-day ERA: 2.90) must manage without Cruz and Castro, though Arizona's bullpen is equally depleted with four relievers sidelined.
OUR ANALYSIS
The AWAY -1.5 run line play on New York is built on the starter mismatch. Schlittler has been dominant: he allowed 1 run or fewer in each of his last four starts, including a 8.0 IP, 1 ER effort on September 2nd, and his xERA of 2.86 confirms this isn't noise. On the other side, Pfaadt has posted back-to-back starts of 3+ ER and shown real vulnerability to contact (10 hits allowed on September 12th). New York is the better team by record (89-64 vs. 80-74) and comes in with a .311 wOBA against starters. Home field advantage carries less weight when the pitching matchup tilts this sharply in the road team's favor. A two-run-or-more Yankees win — covering the -1.5 — is the natural outcome if Schlittler delivers another quality start.
The primary risk: Pfaadt's xERA of 3.85 isn't alarming, and a regression to the mean — a clean, locked-in outing — could hold New York to one or two runs. Arizona's bullpen also holds the edge over the past 14 days (ERA 2.40 vs. 2.90), and New York is without Judge and Stanton, two of their most dangerous bats. A tight game decided late would sink the run line. That scenario is real, but Schlittler's current form and Pfaadt's recent struggles keep us on board with the Yankees.
The starter gap and New York's momentum (4-1 over their last five, commanding win the night before) support backing the Yankees on the -1.5 run line at moderate confidence (52%). Size your bet accordingly — this is a solid lean, not a lock.
Key Factors
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Head-to-Head
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
4 of 39 model features (last 5-10 games)
NYY
STAT
ARI
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 09/18 | @ ARI | 9-2 |
| 09/16 | @ MIN | 4-5 |
| 09/15 | @ MIN | 8-1 |
| 09/14 | @ MIN | 8-3 |
| 09/13 | vs NYM | 2-0 |
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 09/18 | vs NYY | 2-9 |
| 09/16 | vs MIA | 3-4 |
| 09/15 | vs MIA | 2-4 |
| 09/14 | vs MIA | 8-7 |
| 09/13 | vs TEX | 6-7 |
| Pitcher | Starts | F5 vs Line | F5 Over% | F5 Signal | FT vs Line | FT Over% | FT Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Schlittler (AWAY) | 17 | -1.35 | 11.8% | UNDER | 0.00 | 50.0% | - |
| Brandon Pfaadt (HOME) | 10 | -0.40 | 40.0% | - | 0.00 | 50.0% | - |
| Date | vs | IP | ER | H | BB | K | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/24 | TBR | 3.00 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 3.00 |
| 09/19 | ARI | 6.00 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1.50 |
| 09/13 | NYM | 6.00 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0.00 |
| 09/08 | COL | 7.00 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 1.29 |
| 09/02 | LAA | 8.00 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 1.13 |
| Date | vs | IP | ER | H | BB | K | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/25 | SDP | 7.67 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 4.69 |
| 09/19 | NYY | 4.33 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2.08 |
| 09/12 | TEX | 6.67 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 8.10 |
| 09/05 | HOU | 6.33 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 4.27 |
| 08/31 | PHI | 6.00 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3.00 |
Frequently asked questions
When was NYY @ ARI played?
This MLB game was played on 2026-09-19.
Where can I find the prediction for NYY @ ARI?
This ProbWin page shows the predictions our model published before the game (F5 and full-game totals, spreads), the key stats for both sides, and the settled result — every prediction is kept, win or lose, in our public track record.
How are these predictions calculated?
Our MLB statistical models are trained on league history and recomputed daily from team and player stats plus market odds. Every prediction is published before the game and its result is settled publicly.
