NYM @ NYY MLB prediction: AI analysis & picks
Our picks for this match
Our Expert Analysis
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PROBABLE STARTERS
OUR PICKS
GAME CONTEXT
This is the rubber game of the Subway Series at Yankee Stadium, with the series tied 1-1 after the Yankees took Game 1 (6-4) and the Mets dominated Game 2 (12-2). The Yankees (85-63) host the Mets (69-79) in a winner-take-all finale in a rivalry that never lacks for edge.
KEY ABSENCES
GAME SCRIPT
Expect Schlittler to control the first five innings with ease. His last three starts read 7.0 IP/1 ER, 8.0 IP/1 ER, and 5.2 IP/0 ER — and the Mets' K rate vs. starters sits at just 0.171, a contact-heavy profile that plays right into a strikeout pitcher's hands. Scott, meanwhile, has struggled to pitch deep: four of his last five starts ended before 5.1 IP, surrendering between 2 and 4 ER each time. When the game turns to the bullpens, the Yankees hold the edge — their 14-day ERA of 4.43 compares favorably to the Mets' 5.76, a gap that widens with Williams and Perez both unavailable. Weather is a legitimate wildcard (90% chance of rain, wind 7–17 mph), and any delay or interruption bears watching before first pitch.
OUR ANALYSIS
The Yankees -1.5 run line makes sense on the back of a stark starter gap. Schlittler has allowed 1 run or fewer in 6 of his last 7 outings — 9 earned runs over his last 41.1 innings — and the Mets' wOBA vs. starters (.360) suggests they'll have trouble keeping up offensively. Scott's pattern of early exits puts the Yankees' offense in a position to build a multi-run lead before the bullpen ever enters. The home park factor (1.07) at Yankee Stadium adds a touch of upside on the scoring end, and with the Mets' bullpen depleted, a Yankees lead tends to stick.
DEVIL'S ADVOCATE
The Mets just put up 12 runs against these same Yankees 24 hours ago — they've proven they can blow up any paper advantage. If Scott pitches closer to his September 6 line (4.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K) and Schlittler runs into trouble like his August 21 start (6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 3 BB), covering a -1.5 spread gets uncomfortable fast. A rain delay could also disrupt Schlittler's rhythm at a critical point in his outing. We acknowledge the risk — and we're comfortable with it, given how clearly the recent-form gap favors the home side.
PROBWIN VERDICT
With Schlittler in peak form against a Scott who regularly struggles to pitch deep, and with the Mets' bullpen shorthanded, the Yankees -1.5 run line earns a spot at 52% confidence. Size your bet accordingly — this is a measured play, not a lock.
Key Factors
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Head-to-Head
Form & Stats
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 09/12 | @ NYY | 12-2 |
| 09/11 | @ NYY | 4-6 |
| 09/09 | @ MIA | 15-14 |
| 09/08 | @ MIA | 7-5 |
| 09/07 | @ MIA | 9-4 |
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 09/12 | vs NYM | 2-12 |
| 09/11 | vs NYM | 6-4 |
| 09/10 | vs COL | 10-3 |
| 09/09 | vs COL | 6-1 |
| 09/08 | vs COL | 5-3 |
| Pitcher | Starts | F5 vs Line | F5 Over% | F5 Signal | FT vs Line | FT Over% | FT Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Scott (AWAY) | 12 | 0.33 | 50.0% | - | 0.00 | 50.0% | - |
| Cam Schlittler (HOME) | 19 | -0.93 | 20.0% | UNDER | 0.00 | 50.0% | - |
| Date | vs | IP | ER | H | BB | K | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/13 | NYY | 6.00 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 3.00 |
| 09/06 | SFG | 4.67 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 3.85 |
| 08/28 | HOU | 5.33 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 5.07 |
| 08/22 | CHW | 4.67 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 7.71 |
| 08/16 | WSN | 6.33 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 4.27 |
| Date | vs | IP | ER | H | BB | K | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/13 | NYM | 6.00 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0.00 |
| 09/08 | COL | 7.00 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 1.29 |
| 09/02 | LAA | 8.00 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 1.13 |
| 08/28 | BOS | 5.67 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0.00 |
| 08/21 | TOR | 6.00 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 1.50 |
Frequently asked questions
When was NYM @ NYY played?
This MLB game was played on 2026-09-13.
Where can I find the prediction for NYM @ NYY?
This ProbWin page shows the predictions our model published before the game (F5 and full-game totals, spreads), the key stats for both sides, and the settled result — every prediction is kept, win or lose, in our public track record.
How are these predictions calculated?
Our MLB statistical models are trained on league history and recomputed daily from team and player stats plus market odds. Every prediction is published before the game and its result is settled publicly.
