NYM @ NYY MLB prediction: AI analysis & picks
Our picks for this match
Our Expert Analysis
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PROBABLE STARTERS
OUR PICKS
GAME CONTEXT
The New York Mets (68-79) head to Yankee Stadium for the second game of this Subway Series against the New York Yankees (85-62). New York took the opener 6-4 on September 11, putting the Mets in a must-win spot to avoid falling behind in this storied rivalry.
KEY ABSENCES
GAME SCRIPT
Gerrit Cole (xERA 3.66) squaring off against Zac Thornton (xERA 4.67) sets up a clear first-five-innings edge for New York. Cole delivered 7.0 IP in his last outing (September 6), while Thornton was shelled for 6 ER over 5.0 IP in his most recent start (September 5), showing significant home-run vulnerability at a park that plays hitter-friendly (1.07 park factor). Once the game shifts to the bullpens, the gap only widens: the Yankees' relief corps carries a 3.51 ERA over the past 14 days versus 5.96 for the Mets. Conditions at 79°F with a 9 mph wind are favorable for hitters across the board.
OUR ANALYSIS
Three factors converge in favor of the Yankees run line at -1.5. First, the starting pitching edge is clear-cut: Cole (xERA 3.66, 7.0 IP on September 6) against a Thornton (xERA 4.67) coming off a brutal outing — 5.0 IP, 6 ER on September 5. Second, the bullpen gap is the most compelling number on the board: a 2.45-ERA differential over 14 days is exactly the kind of structural edge that flips close games in New York's favor down the stretch. Third, context aligns — the Yankees (85-62) hold home field, lead the series, and enter riding a four-game win streak. At 53% model confidence, this isn't a monster edge, so size your stake accordingly.
DEVIL'S ADVOCATE
Cole's last start does give pause — 4 earned runs over 7.0 IP on September 6 and signs of susceptibility to the long ball. The Mets post a .353 wOBA against starters, the higher mark in this matchup, and their lower K rate (.174 vs. .230) suggests they put the ball in play rather than getting punched out. If Thornton manages to eat five or six innings and keep the deficit manageable, New York could stay within run-line range. The risk is real, but the structural bullpen advantage remains our tiebreaker — we're staying the course.
PROBWIN VERDICT
The Yankees hold a sharper starter, a significantly stronger bullpen, and home-field advantage — a consistent enough edge to back New York to cover -1.5. Keep the stake proportional to a 53% confidence play.
Key Factors
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Head-to-Head
Form & Stats
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 09/11 | @ NYY | 4-6 |
| 09/09 | @ MIA | 15-14 |
| 09/08 | @ MIA | 7-5 |
| 09/07 | @ MIA | 9-4 |
| 09/06 | vs SFG | 4-2 |
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 09/11 | vs NYM | 6-4 |
| 09/10 | vs COL | 10-3 |
| 09/09 | vs COL | 6-1 |
| 09/08 | vs COL | 5-3 |
| 09/06 | @ SDP | 3-4 |
| Pitcher | Starts | F5 vs Line | F5 Over% | F5 Signal | FT vs Line | FT Over% | FT Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerrit Cole (HOME) | 9 | -0.44 | 44.4% | - | 0.00 | 50.0% | - |
| Date | vs | IP | ER | H | BB | K | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/18 | PHI | 6.00 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3.00 |
| 09/12 | NYY | 7.00 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2.57 |
| 09/05 | SFG | 5.00 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 10.80 |
| 08/30 | HOU | 5.00 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 3.60 |
| 08/25 | MIL | 6.00 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 1.50 |
| Date | vs | IP | ER | H | BB | K | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/18 | ARI | 6.00 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 3.00 |
| 09/12 | NYM | 4.33 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 10.39 |
| 09/06 | SDP | 7.00 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 5.14 |
| 09/01 | LAA | 5.33 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 5.07 |
| 08/27 | HOU | 6.00 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 4.50 |
Frequently asked questions
When was NYM @ NYY played?
This MLB game was played on 2026-09-12.
Where can I find the prediction for NYM @ NYY?
This ProbWin page shows the predictions our model published before the game (F5 and full-game totals, spreads), the key stats for both sides, and the settled result — every prediction is kept, win or lose, in our public track record.
How are these predictions calculated?
Our MLB statistical models are trained on league history and recomputed daily from team and player stats plus market odds. Every prediction is published before the game and its result is settled publicly.
