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MIA @ CHC MLB prediction: AI analysis & picks

MLB — Regular Season
MIAMIA
MIA
Away
★Follow
Janson JunkRCONFIRMED
xERA 4.26
Last 5 LLLWW
8 — 2
FINAL
2026-09-22
CHCCHC
CHC
Home
★Follow
Shota ImanagaLCONFIRMED
xERA 3.81
Last 5 WWLWL
Analysis published before first pitch Time-stamped odds (CLV) Transparent methodology
First 5 —
Full Time · 6.5 1.85
Run line · -1.5 2.12
Multi-bookmaker odds · time-stamped

Our picks for this match

AI Trend OVER 6.5
Model confidence59 %
Odds
1.85
Market
Full Game Totals
Taken on 22/09 · 18:25 at odds of 1.85
Official pick CHC -1.5
Model confidence59 %
Odds
2.12
Market
Run Line (Spread)
Suggested stake
1.5 u Kelly ↗
Taken on 22/09 · 13:12 at odds of 2.12

Our Expert Analysis

PRO
Confidence
59%
Starters xERA4.26 vs 3.81MIA (away) · CHC (home)
View full analysis
Nos Picks
Spread: HOME -1.5 @ 2.120 Confiance: 59%

Janson Junk vs None

NOTRE ANALYSE

Spread — projection 2.16, edge 24.58.

Key Factors

Pitcher hand
RvsL
F5 Over%
36.4%vs47.4%
FT Over%
50.0%vs50.0%
F5 Signal
UNDERvs—
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Head-to-Head

1MIA
CHC4
09/06/26CHC @ MIA3 – 10
09/05/26CHC @ MIA6 – 5
09/04/26CHC @ MIA6 – 1
05/21/25CHC @ MIA2 – 1
05/20/25CHC @ MIA14 – 1

Form & Stats

Team Comparison

5 of 39 model features (last 5-10 games)

MIA STAT CHC
4.26
Starter xERA ? Shota Imanaga vs Janson Junk — ERA attendue basée sur la qualité des contacts
3.81
84.2
Exit Velocity ? Vitesse de sortie de balle au contact (mph) — qualité du contact offensif
83.5
8
HR (3 matchs) ? Home Runs sur les 3 derniers matchs — puissance récente
12
4.58
Bullpen ERA ? ERA du bullpen sur 14 jours — points mérités par les releveurs
2.77
91.0
Vélocité moy. ? Vélocité moyenne des lancers rencontrés (mph) — calibre des adversaires affrontés
89.0
Recent Results
MIA
DateGameScore
09/20@ SDP3-7
09/19@ SDP6-7
09/18@ SDP2-8
09/16@ ARI4-3
09/15@ ARI4-2
CHC
DateGameScore
09/20@ CIN9-1
09/19@ CIN5-2
09/18@ CIN4-6
09/16vs ATL8-4
09/15vs ATL3-6
Pitcher impact on totals
PitcherStartsF5 vs LineF5 Over%F5 SignalFT vs LineFT Over%FT Signal
Janson Junk (AWAY)11-0.8236.4%UNDER0.0050.0%-
Shota Imanaga (HOME)190.4747.4%-0.0050.0%-
Last 5 starts
Janson Junk (MIA)
DatevsIPERHBBKERA
09/27ATL4.6713151.93
09/22CHC5.0002160.00
09/15ARI3.0015143.00
09/09NYM3.00881024.00
09/04CHC5.0013141.80
Shota Imanaga (CHC)
DatevsIPERHBBKERA
09/27BOS1.0011039.00
09/22MIA5.0014071.80
09/16ATL6.0014081.50
09/11PIT6.0025243.00
09/04MIA6.0013041.50
Line Movement
Lines stable since open — no significant movement.

Frequently asked questions

When was MIA @ CHC played?

This MLB game was played on 2026-09-22.

Where can I find the prediction for MIA @ CHC?

This ProbWin page shows the predictions our model published before the game (F5 and full-game totals, spreads), the key stats for both sides, and the settled result — every prediction is kept, win or lose, in our public track record.

How are these predictions calculated?

Our MLB statistical models are trained on league history and recomputed daily from team and player stats plus market odds. Every prediction is published before the game and its result is settled publicly.

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