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KCR @ PIT MLB prediction: AI analysis & picks

MLB — Regular Season
KCRKCR
KCR
Away
Follow
Randy DobnakRCONFIRMED
xERA 4.48
Last 5 LWLLL
VS
2026-09-18
PITPIT
PIT
Home
Follow
Paul SkenesRCONFIRMED
xERA 3.25
Last 5 WLLWL
Analysis due before first pitch Time-stamped odds (CLV) Transparent methodology
First 5 · 4.5 1.93
Full Time -1.0open 8.5
Run line · +1.5 1.75
Multi-bookmaker odds · time-stamped

Our picks for this match

3 AI picks on this match Model confidence, edge vs market and odds — members only.
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Our Expert Analysis

AI Analysis

PROBABLE STARTERS

Home: Paul Skenes (RHP) — xERA 3.25
Away: Randy Dobnak (RHP) — xERA 4.48

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GAME CONTEXT

Pittsburgh (76-77) and Kansas City (67-86) open a series at PNC Park. The Royals are deep into a road stretch that has tested a club already well below .500 away from home this season. There are no divisional stakes — this is an AL Central vs. NL Central interleague matchup.

KEY ABSENCES

Home (PIT): Esmerlyn Valdez (RF), Braxton Ashcraft (SP), Isaac Mattson (RP) + 3 on long-term IL
Away (KCR): Beck Way (RP), Tony Gonsolin (SP), Alec Marsh (SP) + 5 on long-term IL

Full analysis and verdict

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Key Factors

Pitcher hand
RvsR
F5 Over%
vs43.8%
FT Over%
vs50.0%
F5 Signal
vsOVER
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Odds Comparison

Comparer les cotes

Bookmaker Full Time OVER Full Time UNDER Spreads HOME Spreads AWAY
Pinnacle (réf.)
1xBet 2.10@8.5 1.83@8.5 2.12@1.5 1.82@1.5
888sport 1.80@7.5 2.00@7.5 2.20@1.5 1.67@1.5
LeoVegas 1.75@7.5 2.00@7.5 2.08@1.5 1.70@1.5
BetVictor 1.75@7.5 2.00@7.5 2.10@1.5 1.73@1.5

Cotes pré-match indicatives — la meilleure cote est en vert.

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Form & Stats

Recent Results
KCR
DateGameScore
09/17@ HOU2-6
09/16@ HOU5-2
09/15@ HOU2-4
09/13@ BOS1-4
09/12@ BOS1-5
PIT
DateGameScore
09/17vs MIL7-4
09/16vs MIL4-5
09/15vs MIL1-5
09/13@ CHC4-3
09/12@ CHC3-4
Pitcher impact on totals
PitcherStartsF5 vs LineF5 Over%F5 SignalFT vs LineFT Over%FT Signal
Paul Skenes (HOME)211.6943.8%OVER0.0050.0%-
Last 5 starts
Randy Dobnak (KCR)
DatevsIPERHBBKERA
09/12BOS5.6734044.76
09/06TOR6.0014031.50
09/01MIA6.0067269.00
08/26TOR6.0036154.50
08/20OAK4.0006440.00
Paul Skenes (PIT)
DatevsIPERHBBKERA
09/12CHC7.0024142.57
09/06LAA5.3304120.00
09/01SFG4.6758349.64
08/25SDP6.0003040.00
08/19DET4.3334456.24
Line Movement
Full Time
8.5 7.5 -1.0

Frequently asked questions

When is KCR @ PIT played?

This MLB game is scheduled for 2026-09-18.

Where can I find a prediction for KCR @ PIT?

This ProbWin page shows our model's probabilities for F5 and full-game totals, spreads, the key stats for both sides and, on game day, a full written analysis. Every prediction is then settled in our public track record.

How are these predictions calculated?

Our MLB statistical models are trained on league history and recomputed daily from team and player stats plus market odds. Every prediction is published before the game and its result is settled publicly.

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