COL @ DET MLB prediction: AI analysis & picks
Our picks for this match
Our Expert Analysis
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PROBABLE STARTERS
OUR PICKS
No pick or AI trend on this game.
GAME CONTEXT
Detroit (68-79) hosts Colorado (55-92) in Game 2 of a three-game home series at Comerica Park, after winning the opener 6-2. The Tigers have won three of their last four games, while the Rockies have dropped five straight. With both clubs well out of contention, the stakes are low this late in the season.
KEY ABSENCES
GAME SCRIPT
Sears enters as a recall from Triple-A Toledo with just 12.1 MLB innings under his belt, but his most recent start (September 4: 5.2 IP, 1 ER) showed enough to earn another look. The bigger story is Gordon, who is running hot and cold — a clean 7.0-inning effort on August 26 gave way to a disastrous last outing on September 6 (4.2 IP, 5 ER, pulled in the fifth), and he carries an 0-2 career record against Detroit. Once both starters exit, expect rough sledding: Detroit's bullpen is at a 4.53 ERA over the past 14 days, Colorado's at 5.44. Conditions are neutral — 79°F, 9 mph wind slightly favoring hitters, park factor 0.97.
OUR ANALYSIS
No market clears the model's confidence threshold on this one. The surface read favors Detroit — superior starter xERA at home, an opponent in freefall, a dominant head-to-head history — but Sears's paper-thin MLB track record and the volatility of both bullpens inject enough uncertainty that no clear directional edge emerges. Lines are available across standard markets; it's the confidence level, not the odds, that's holding us back.
DEVIL'S ADVOCATE
Gordon has shown he can go deep into games when his command is on — his August 26 start (7.0 IP, 1 ER) is proof. If the Tigers manage Sears conservatively and hand things over early to a shaky bullpen, Colorado has the ability to put runs on the board (they scored 8 on September 6). That volatility cuts both ways and is exactly why the model sits this one out.
PROBWIN VERDICT
No bet on this game. Odds are posted, but model confidence doesn't reach the threshold for a recommendation — we pass.
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Head-to-Head
Form & Stats
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 09/11 | @ DET | 2-6 |
| 09/10 | @ NYY | 3-10 |
| 09/09 | @ NYY | 1-6 |
| 09/08 | @ NYY | 3-5 |
| 09/06 | vs STL | 8-10 |
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 09/11 | vs COL | 6-2 |
| 09/09 | vs MIN | 7-2 |
| 09/08 | vs MIN | 2-3 |
| 09/07 | vs MIN | 5-4 |
| 09/06 | @ CLE | 2-3 |
| Date | vs | IP | ER | H | BB | K | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/17 | SDP | 3.00 | 7 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 21.00 |
| 09/12 | DET | 4.00 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 9.00 |
| 09/06 | STL | 4.67 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 9.64 |
| 08/31 | BAL | 5.00 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1.80 |
| 08/26 | WSN | 7.00 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1.29 |
| Date | vs | IP | ER | H | BB | K | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/18 | CHW | 0.67 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0.00 |
| 09/12 | COL | 4.33 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 8.31 |
| 09/04 | CLE | 5.67 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1.59 |
| 08/29 | LAD | 2.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 |
| 08/23 | KCR | 4.00 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 11.25 |
Frequently asked questions
When was COL @ DET played?
This MLB game was played on 2026-09-12.
Where can I find the prediction for COL @ DET?
This ProbWin page shows the predictions our model published before the game (F5 and full-game totals, spreads), the key stats for both sides, and the settled result — every prediction is kept, win or lose, in our public track record.
How are these predictions calculated?
Our MLB statistical models are trained on league history and recomputed daily from team and player stats plus market odds. Every prediction is published before the game and its result is settled publicly.
