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CHC @ CIN MLB prediction: AI analysis & picks

MLB — Regular Season
CHCCHC
CHC
Away
Follow
Clay HolmesRCONFIRMED
xERA 3.96
Last 5 WLWLW
VS
2026-09-18
CINCIN
CIN
Home
Follow
Chase BurnsRCONFIRMED
xERA 3.18
Last 5 LWLLW
Analysis due before first pitch Time-stamped odds (CLV) Transparent methodology
First 5
Full Time
Run line · +1.5 1.74
Multi-bookmaker odds · time-stamped

Our picks for this match

2 AI picks on this match Model confidence, edge vs market and odds — members only.
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Our Expert Analysis

AI Analysis

LANCEURS CONFIRMÉS

Domicile : Chase Burns (droitier) — xERA 3.18
Extérieur : Clay Holmes (droitier) — xERA 3.96

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CONTEXTE DU MATCH

Game 1 d'une série de 3 matchs (18-20 septembre) à Cincinnati. Les Chicago Cubs (85-68) jouent chaque victoire en fin de saison régulière, tandis que les Cincinnati Reds (71-82) concluent leur année devant leur public. Rivalité de division NL Central avec des confrontations H2H offensives tout au long de la saison.

ABSENCES NOTABLES

Domicile (CIN) : Spencer Steer (1B) — entorse poignet droit, retour estimé 22/09 ; Blake Dunn (CF) — chirurgie coude droit, retour estimé mars 2027 ; Hunter Greene (SP) — chirurgie coude droit ; + 1 absent longue durée
Extérieur (CHC) : Dansby Swanson (SS) — élongation oblique gauche, retour estimé 18/09 ; Trent Thornton (RP) — douleur cheville gauche, retour estimé 27/09 ; + 6 absents longue durée

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Key Factors

Pitcher hand
RvsR
F5 Over%
vs53.8%
FT Over%
vs50.0%
F5 Signal
vsOVER
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Odds Comparison

Comparer les cotes

Bookmaker
Pinnacle (réf.)

Cotes pré-match indicatives — la meilleure cote est en vert.

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Head-to-Head

3CHC
CIN2
08/30/26CIN @ CHC7 – 5
08/29/26CIN @ CHC5 – 17
08/28/26CIN @ CHC10 – 8
07/12/26CHC @ CIN8 – 4
07/11/26CHC @ CIN5 – 3

Form & Stats

Recent Results
CHC
DateGameScore
09/16vs ATL8-4
09/15vs ATL3-6
09/14vs ATL7-3
09/13vs PIT3-4
09/12vs PIT4-3
CIN
DateGameScore
09/17vs LAD2-8
09/16vs LAD6-2
09/15vs LAD0-4
09/14vs LAD1-4
09/13@ MIL4-3
Pitcher impact on totals
PitcherStartsF5 vs LineF5 Over%F5 SignalFT vs LineFT Over%FT Signal
Chase Burns (HOME)141.0853.8%OVER0.0050.0%-
Last 5 starts
Clay Holmes (CHC)
DatevsIPERHBBKERA
09/12PIT5.6725463.17
09/06MIA4.33863216.63
08/31MIL6.0005280.00
08/25ARI7.0002250.00
08/19CHW5.3316211.69
Chase Burns (CIN)
DatevsIPERHBBKERA
09/13MIL3.0022356.00
09/07LAD3.0000150.00
08/30CHC5.6726173.17
08/24SFG3.67591512.26
08/19STL5.0026283.60

Frequently asked questions

When is CHC @ CIN played?

This MLB game is scheduled for 2026-09-18.

Where can I find a prediction for CHC @ CIN?

This ProbWin page shows our model's probabilities for F5 and full-game totals, spreads, the key stats for both sides and, on game day, a full written analysis. Every prediction is then settled in our public track record.

How are these predictions calculated?

Our MLB statistical models are trained on league history and recomputed daily from team and player stats plus market odds. Every prediction is published before the game and its result is settled publicly.

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