After the success of our NBA predictions (69% win rate on Totals, +32.8% ROI over 220+ picks), NHL and Soccer, ProbWin is expanding its coverage to tennis. Our AI model has been available in beta since February 2026.
What's Available Right Now
Two Markets Covered
| Market | Description | How It Works |
|---|---|---|
| Match Winner | Who wins the match | Win probability vs Pinnacle odds |
| Total Games | Over/Under on total games played | Estimated total vs bookmaker line |
ATP and WTA Coverage
| Tour | Minimum Level | Examples | Why This Threshold |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATP | ATP 250+ | ATP 250, 500, Masters, Grand Slam | Reliable data, Pinnacle odds available |
| WTA | WTA 250+ | WTA 250, 500, 1000, Grand Slam | Coverage expanding |
| Challengers | Excluded | — | Variance too high, insufficient data |
| Futures/ITF | Excluded | — | No reliable sharp odds |
Detailed Match Analysis
Every analyzed match has a dedicated page on our tennis section featuring:
- Real-time odds (source: Pinnacle)
- Our model's prediction (probability + edge)
- The analysis written by our AI Analyst
- Global Elo and surface Elo ratings for both players
- Recent form over the last 5-10 matches
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Our Technical Approach in Brief
Surface-Specific Elo — Our Competitive Edge
Tennis is the only major sport where the playing surface fundamentally changes the game. That's why we built an Elo system covering 87,000+ players with separate ratings per surface (Hard, Clay, Grass).
A player ranked 30th on the ATP tour might be top 15 on clay and top 80 on grass. The official rankings don't distinguish between surfaces — our Elo does.
To understand in detail how our surface-specific Elo works, check out our complete guide to our AI tennis model.
The CatBoost Model
Our machine learning algorithm combines:
| Input | What It Measures |
|---|---|
| Surface Elo | True strength on the match surface |
| Pinnacle odds | The sharp market price |
| Recent form | Current momentum |
| H2H | Head-to-head record |
| Tournament level | Grand Slam vs ATP 250 |
When our model's probability diverges significantly from the Pinnacle odds, a pick is generated.
The Multi-Agent Pipeline
As with our other sports, each match goes through a 5-agent AI pipeline:
Scout (data) → Analyst (reasoning) → Executor (validation)
→ Writer (analysis)
→ Learner (improvement)
Each match is analyzed individually by the Analyst — no batch formula applied across the board. The Analyst can validate, reject, or create a pick independently from the model.
Why a Beta Version?
Tennis presents unique challenges that we need to calibrate under real conditions:
The Challenges of Tennis for an AI Model
| Challenge | Impact | Our Response |
|---|---|---|
| Individual variance | A player can be brilliant one day and mediocre the next | Elo with recency weighting |
| Frequent injuries | Retirements, unpredictable withdrawals | Scout checks injury lists |
| Surface transitions | Clay → Grass = chaotic period | Model becomes more conservative during transitions |
| Limited WTA data | Shallower history compared to ATP | Higher confidence thresholds |
| Variable format | 2 vs 3 sets to win in Grand Slams | Separate features by format |
What the Beta Allows Us to Do
During the first few weeks, our Learner observes results and adjusts:
- Confidence thresholds — at what edge level a pick becomes official
- Odds filters — which odds range is most profitable
- Surface adjustments — how much weight to give surface Elo vs global Elo
- Winning patterns — which match profiles generate the most value
This is exactly the same calibration process we followed for NBA, NHL, and Soccer before reaching our current performance levels.
Full Transparency on Results
We publish all our picks with complete tracking:
- Every pick is timestamped with the odds at the time of selection
- Results are updated automatically after each match
- Cumulative P&L is visible on our tennis page
- Official picks and "shadow" picks (below threshold) are all tracked
During the beta phase, the sample size is still limited. Statistics will become meaningful after several weeks of coverage. We will make no performance claims until we have a sufficient sample size.
What's Coming Next
| Stage | When | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Learner calibration | Ongoing | Threshold adjustments based on initial results |
| Clay court season | April 2026 | Testing the model on a new surface |
| Expanded coverage | If performance holds | Possible extension to high-level Challengers |
| BETA badge removal | Performance stabilized | When WR and ROI are confirmed over 100+ picks |
Start Following Our Tennis Picks
Three ways to follow our tennis predictions:
- Tennis page — check our daily picks with full analysis
- Free account — create your ProbWin account to receive alerts
- Premium — access all picks in real time with our subscription
To understand how to interpret our analyses, check out our guides: - How our AI analyzes tennis matches - Tennis betting markets you should know - The impact of court surfaces on predictions
And if you already bet, our AsianConnect guide explains how to access the best odds through Pinnacle.
