Corsi and Fenwick: The Possession Metrics That Reveal the Real NHL Teams

A team wins 3-2. They dominated, right?

Not so fast. Look at the shots: 38-18 for the opponent. Shot attempts: 65-31. That team was outplayed for 60 minutes. They won thanks to a heroic goaltender and a bit of luck.

The score sometimes lies. But Corsi and Fenwick don't.

These possession metrics are to hockey what ball possession is to football: an indicator of territorial dominance. And for NHL bettors, they reveal which teams are truly good — and which ones are living on borrowed time.

What Is Corsi?

The Definition

Corsi measures all shot attempts by a team, not just shots on goal.

Corsi = Shots on Goal + Blocked Shots + Missed Shots

Why Include Blocked and Missed Shots?

A blocked or missed shot is still an offensive intention. The team had the puck in the offensive zone and attempted to score.

Shot Type	Counted In...
Shot on Goal (reaches goalie)	Shots on Goal + Corsi
Blocked Shot (by defenseman)	Corsi only
Missed Shot (wide of net)	Corsi only

Corsi For and Against

Metric	Abbreviation	What It Measures
Corsi For (CF)	CF	Your team's shot attempts
Corsi Against (CA)	CA	Opponent's shot attempts
Corsi Differential	CF - CA	Net dominance

Corsi % (CF%)

The most commonly used metric:

CF% = CF ÷ (CF + CA) × 100

CF%	Interpretation
> 55%	Clear dominance
52-55%	Above average
48-52%	Even
45-48%	Below average
< 45%	Outplayed

The benchmark: A CF% of 50% means equal shot attempts for and against. Above = you're dominating. Below = you're being dominated.

What Is Fenwick?

The Difference from Corsi

Fenwick is similar to Corsi, but excludes blocked shots.

Fenwick = Shots on Goal + Missed Shots
(No blocked shots)

Why Exclude Blocked Shots?

Blocked shots depend partly on the opposing team's defensive strategy. A team that blocks heavily artificially inflates its opponent's Corsi.

Fenwick is considered a "purer" measure of offensive intent.

Fenwick For and Against

Metric	Abbreviation	What It Measures
Fenwick For (FF)	FF	Shot attempts (without blocks)
Fenwick Against (FA)	FA	Opponent attempts (without blocks)
Fenwick %	FF%	FF ÷ (FF + FA) × 100

Corsi vs Fenwick: Which to Use?

Situation	Recommended Metric
General analysis	Corsi (larger sample)
Team that blocks heavily	Fenwick (more accurate)
Quick comparison	Corsi (more widespread)
In-depth analysis	Both

In practice, Corsi and Fenwick are highly correlated (r > 0.95). For betting purposes, Corsi is sufficient in most cases.

Why Corsi Predicts Better Than the Score

The Variance Problem

Hockey is a low-scoring sport. A typical game: 3-2 or 4-3. With so few goals, luck plays an enormous role.

Metric	Variance	Predictiveness
Score (goals)	Very high	Low
Shots on Goal	High	Moderate
Corsi	Moderate	Good
xG	Moderate	Very good

The Study That Changed Everything

Research has shown that Corsi predicts the future better than past results.

Team A: Record 30-20, but CF% 48%
Team B: Record 25-25, but CF% 54%

Who performs better over the next 20 games?
Answer: Team B (possession eventually translates into goals)

Regression to the Mean

A team with bad Corsi but good results is surviving on: - An exceptional goaltender - An abnormally high shooting percentage - Pure luck

At some point, luck runs out. Corsi tells you when it's about to happen.

Corsi Adjustments

5-on-5 Corsi (CF% 5v5)

The "purest" Corsi. Excludes power plays where the PP team naturally dominates.

CF% 5v5 = The true indicator of even-strength dominance

This is the metric to prioritize for betting.

Score-Adjusted Corsi

Adjusts for the game score. A team leading 4-1 will often sit back and let the opponent shoot.

Situation	Impact on Corsi
Leading by 2+ goals	CF% artificially low
Trailing by 2+ goals	CF% artificially high
Close score	"Pure" CF%

Score-Adjusted Corsi corrects this distortion.

Corsi Close

Similar to Score-Adjusted. Only counts situations with a gap of 1 goal or less.

Corsi Close = Corsi when the game is tight

Useful for seeing how a team performs under pressure.

Relative Corsi (CF% Rel)

Compares a player's or line's Corsi when they're on the ice vs when they're not.

CF% Rel = CF% with player - CF% without player

Useful for evaluating individual impact, less so for betting on the game.

Using Corsi for Betting

Strategy #1: Identify PDO-Dependent Teams

PDO combines save percentage and shooting percentage:

PDO = SV% + SH%

The league average is 100 (or 1.000). PDO tends to regress toward 100.

CF%	PDO	Diagnosis
> 52%	> 102	Good team + lucky → Slight regression
> 52%	< 98	Good team + unlucky → Improvement coming
< 48%	> 102	Bad team + lucky → Strong regression
< 48%	< 98	Bad team + unlucky → Truly struggling

The opportunity: Teams with a bad Corsi but good PDO are going to regress. Bet against them.

Strategy #2: Compare Both Teams' Corsi

For a given matchup:

CF% Team A	CF% Team B	Likely Dominance
55%	48%	A dominates clearly
52%	51%	Evenly matched
48%	54%	B dominates

Cross-reference with goaltenders to estimate the score.

Strategy #3: Recent Corsi vs Season-Long

Current form matters:

CF% last 10	CF% season	Signal
56%	51%	In form, overperforming
46%	51%	Struggling
52%	52%	Steady

A team dominating recently (rising CF%) is playing with confidence.

Strategy #4: Fade Teams with Low Corsi That Keep Winning

When a team with CF% < 48% strings together wins:

Signal: This team is living above its means
Action: Bet against them (opponent ML, or Over if their goalie is the reason)

The Limitations of Corsi

Limitation #1: Doesn't Measure Shot Quality

A shot from the blue line = 1 Corsi. A shot from the slot = 1 Corsi.

Yet their goal probability is completely different.

Solution: Combine Corsi with High Danger Chances and xGA.

Limitation #2: Playing Style Matters

Some teams play a "low Corsi" style by design:

Style	Typical Corsi	Effectiveness
Run and gun	High CF%	Variable
Defensive/counter-attack	Lower CF%	Can be effective
Possession	High CF%	Generally good

A defensive team with 48% CF% can still be successful if it limits high-quality chances.

Limitation #3: Small Sample Size Early in the Season

Games Played	CF% Reliability
< 10	Low
10-20	Moderate
20-40	Good
> 40	High

In October, Corsi is volatile. Wait until November-December for strong conclusions.

Limitation #4: Doesn't Capture Special Teams

5v5 Corsi ignores the Power Play and Penalty Kill. A team can dominate at 5v5 but have a disastrous PP/PK.

Solution: Also look at PP and PK stats.

Corsi + xG: The Winning Combination

Why Combine Them

Metric	What It Tells You
Corsi	How many attempts
xG	Quality of attempts

A team can have good Corsi (lots of shots) but bad xG (shots from distance, not dangerous).

The Corsi/xG Matrix

CF%	xGF%	Profile
High	High	Elite team — dominates in quantity AND quality
High	Low	Lots of shots but from far out — less dangerous
Low	High	Few shots but well-placed — efficient
Low	Low	Struggling team — systemic problem

Example

Team	CF% 5v5	xGF% 5v5	Analysis
Carolina	54.2%	55.8%	Elite — dominates everywhere
Columbus	51.5%	47.2%	OK Corsi but low-quality chances
New Jersey	48.1%	52.3%	Less possession but efficient
Chicago	46.8%	44.5%	Weak across the board

Complete Example: Analysis with Corsi

The Game

Wild @ Jets — January 28, 2026

The Data

Team	CF% 5v5	xGF% 5v5	PDO	GA/game	Goalie GSAx
Minnesota	52.8%	53.2%	101.5	2.65	+6.2
Winnipeg	49.1%	48.5%	103.2	2.45	+12.5

The Analysis

Minnesota: - Solid CF% (52.8%) — they dominate possession - Good xGF% (53.2%) — quality chances too - PDO slightly above average (101.5) — slightly lucky - Genuinely good team, not just lucky

Winnipeg: - CF% below 50% (49.1%) — they're outpossessed - Low xGF% (48.5%) — chance quality also lacking - Elevated PDO (103.2%) — significantly lucky - Excellent goalie (GSAx +12.5) — carrying the team - Team living above its means

The Diagnosis

Winnipeg has a better GA/game (2.45 vs 2.65)
BUT: Their CF% and xGF% are inferior
THEREFORE: Their goaltender is masking structural issues

Minnesota is the better team on the analytical sheet.

The Opportunity

Scenario	Reasoning
Minnesota ML	Genuinely superior team
Moderate Over	Winnipeg could leak goals if goalie has an average night

Caution: Winnipeg's goalie (GSAx +12.5) can still steal a game. Don't over-bet.

Where to Find Corsi Data

Free Sources

Source	URL	Data
Natural Stat Trick	naturalstattrick.com	CF%, FF%, Score-Adjusted
MoneyPuck	moneypuck.com	CF%, xG%, PDO
Hockey Reference	hockey-reference.com	Basic stats
Evolving Hockey	evolving-hockey.com	Advanced analytics

How to Navigate Natural Stat Trick

1. Go to naturalstattrick.com
2. Click "Teams" → "Team Stats"
3. Select "5v5" and "Score Adjusted" if desired
4. Sort by "CF%" or "xGF%"
5. Compare teams

Key Columns

Column	Meaning
CF%	Corsi For Percentage
FF%	Fenwick For Percentage
SF%	Shots For Percentage (shots on goal only)
xGF%	Expected Goals For Percentage
PDO	Save% + Shooting% (100 = average)

How ProbWin Uses Corsi

Our NHL model integrates Corsi as an indicator of dominance:

1. Season CF% 5v5
2. Score-Adjusted CF%
3. Recent CF% trend (10-15 games)
4. Cross-reference with xGF% and xGA
5. PDO analysis (expected regression)
6. Integration into match estimation

Corsi helps us identify teams that should be winning more (or less) than they actually are.

Check our NHL picks to see this analysis in action.

Summary: Corsi and Fenwick in 7 Points

#	Key Takeaway
1	Corsi = all shot attempts (on goal + blocked + missed)
2	Fenwick = Corsi minus blocked shots
3	CF% > 52% = team dominating possession
4	CF% 5v5 is the purest metric
5	Bad Corsi + good PDO = regression incoming
6	Combine Corsi with xG for shot quality
7	Corsi predicts the future better than past scores

Next Step

Corsi measures the volume of shot attempts. But not all attempts are equal. A shot from the slot is worth 10 times a shot from the blue line.

Discover High Danger Chances — the metric that measures real scoring chances and reveals which teams create (and concede) the most danger.